Let's review the recent market. The previous wave of altcoins' compensatory rally basically appeared after Ethereum's short-term strength on April 12. Some new coins and sub-new coins saw a large increase in a few days. Then on the 19th, the big pie started to fall rapidly after it went up. As a result, in the past few days, the previous compensatory rally of altcoins, including Ethereum, was basically swallowed up. In previous articles, the hero mentioned many times that the compensatory rally of altcoins is a sign that the market is about to end, and reminded everyone to reduce their positions after the compensatory rally broke out, because this year's market is a wide range of fluctuations. The market in January and February was the best time for the continuous rise of altcoins this year. The previous wave of compensatory rally was only for some projects. Once the opportunity is not grasped, chasing high, the fate is now to be trapped. There are not many overall opportunities.
It is April 22, and there are about 360 days until the BTC halving. According to past experience, the bull market always occurs in the year after the production cut, and the year before the production cut is a year of wide fluctuations and violent washes. Last year, the overall trend was downward. Bitcoin rebounded from the beginning of the year. Now it has been 4 months, and the rebound of Bitcoin is nearly doubled. Above 30,000 is the bottom of the wide range of fluctuations that lasted for a year in 21 years. There are many locked-in orders on it, so the hero said that every step above 30,000 is walking on a tightrope. Now, in the short term, it is difficult to effectively break through the position of 30,000. In the next few months, Bitcoin may be in a volatile and negative trend. For this point, you can refer to the trend in the second half of 2019.
Since the birth of BTC in 2008, it has experienced three production cuts. 19.3531 million of the total 21 million have been mined, and the circulation rate has reached 92.15%. In other words, the impact of future production cuts on BTC will gradually decrease, and the greater impact may be on the international financial market. The dividends of BTC can also be ignored. As the hero has said many times in the article before, the future belongs to Ethereum and its ecology. Now the market value of Ethereum is only 50% of BTC. Perhaps in the next bull market, the market value of Ethereum has the opportunity to exceed that of Bitcoin, and its ecology will also explode with more well-known projects. Therefore, during the wide range of fluctuations this year, we mainly use spot thinking and currency-based thinking to invest in potential projects. Later, the hero will list several potential projects that he is optimistic about in the article.
The indicator of Bitcoin top divergence has been mentioned many times in the article. This is an unhealthy rise. This indicator is a sword hanging over your head. It will come down the same way it went up. In recent days, Bitcoin has fallen 10% from its high point for three consecutive days on the daily line. The overall market was volatile over the weekend without much fluctuation. Now I think it will be difficult to break through the 30,000 level in the short term. There may be no sustained upward trend in the next few months. Bitcoin will also be in a wide range of fluctuations, with the high point gradually decreasing. The short-term decline is large, and the cottage may have a rebound, but I think the rebound will not be very strong. Support level: 26,800 Pressure level: 28,000
Ethereum has basically swallowed up the gains of this month. After the positive news of Shanghai's upgrade was realized, there is no expectation in the short term. Although the K-line has not gone bad now, it may weaken in the later period. The overall trend is still mainly wide-range fluctuations. Support level: 1800 Pressure level: 1900
