CPI dropped from 6% to 5%, significantly lower than the previous value; core CPI rose from 5.5% to 5.6%, and core inflation was higher than the previous value. After the data was released, Goldman Sachs retained its expectation of a rate hike in May and gave up its expectation of a rate hike in June. The market also basically predicts that May will be the last time the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, maintaining expectations of a rate cut in the second half of the year.
Fed's Barkin said: Today's CPI report is basically in line with expectations, paying special attention to core inflation, and we still have more work to do. In an environment where the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and the economy is in recession, once the CPI drops, the decline will be faster (which is also a sign of economic weakness). The CPI of 5.0% is already the same as the Federal Reserve's interest rate of 5.0%, and next month's CPI may already be lower than the interest rate. .
The tone of the evening minutes has changed significantly, and the attitude towards raising interest rates is no longer firm. It was revealed before the meeting that there are differences in attitudes towards raising interest rates. Now that the labor market is softening, the Fed’s focus can only be on the banking industry. The stability of the financial system is considered the last priority of the Fed. This fig leaf can be understood as another shield for the Federal Reserve to maintain its attitude of continuing to raise interest rates.
At the meeting, policy makers also predicted a mild recession in the second half of the year. The main reason why this expectation did not affect the market was the pressure on policy makers from the risk of recession. No one would choose to raise interest rates and cause a recession, and subsequent interest rate cuts were expected. The hype will continue.
The attitude towards raising interest rates at the current meeting can still be maintained, so the expectations for interest rate hikes in May have not changed significantly, rising slightly to 70%.
Last night's CPI is conducive to the market outlook for slowing down interest rate hikes, paving the way for the market in April and May!
A good rebound must be BTC first, and then#altcoinfollows. Therefore, the market share of $BTC generally rises first and then falls. Now that the market share is about to peak, the subsequent explosion of#ETHwill completely ignite the fishtail market!
How does the Ethereum upgrade affect the trend?
The current pledge data is 18 million coins, accounting for 15% of the total circulation. Nearly 60,000 coins are released every day. This means that they are not directly flowing into the market. All the daily releases are converted into selling pressure, which is only about 100 million. With the current daily trading volume of more than 1 billion, For Ether, this part of the selling pressure will not bring about a large decline. This can be understood by looking at the data.
The main thing that can cause greater selling pressure is emotional guidance. It can be seen from the recent ETH/BTC exchange rate. I personally think that this part of the emotion has been digested for the most part. It may explode within a day or two after the upgrade is completed. The selling sentiment does not affect the overall upward trend. After the selling sentiment digests the subsequent rise of ETH, it will be healthier.
My personal prediction for the copycat season will be that it will fully unfold after Ethereum’s sentiment is digested, and I’ll give it some time.
It is estimated that it will be difficult to rise sharply in the past few days. After the selling pressure is released, there may be a correction and a wave of correction, or it may rise directly, and then there will be another wave of copycats, and the market in the first half of the year will basically be over.
We still believe that the mid-term market cannot be said to be over, so we continue to be optimistic about the next development. The market sentiment is not enough to support a deep decline, and the performance of Ether cannot constitute a positive realization of the upgrade. Therefore, we understand that there is a high probability that the market will still exist in April.
FTT restart? Can you return to the top exchange queue?
The legal team of the FTX exchange, which was previously exposed to thunder, said that it may restart the exchange in 2024. It is true that "leeks cannot be cut off, and they will grow again when the spring breeze blows." The lawyer said this entirely to appease the creditors. Once the credit of an exchange goes bankrupt, it will never be able to recover.
The essence of blockchain technology relies on decentralization to bring security and trust, but FTX exchange makes security and trust a joke.
The FTX legal team said very cleverly that the exchange "may" be restarted in 2024. I am more inclined to think that this is just a big pie to appease creditors. More or less money is not a problem. FTX is actually credit bankrupt. .
If FTX exchange wants to come back from the dead, unless there are financial and government institutions that are too big to fail or leading exchanges like Binance to inject capital and acquire it, there is hope that FTX can be saved from the crisis of trust.
FTX restarted in Q2. There is a question mark whether it can get out of the shadow of SBF and return to the top exchange queue. However, based on the current market's superimposed analysis of FTT's price and market sentiment, the current good news should be an increase of 30%-50% at this stage. Once the Q2 restart plan is successfully implemented, an increase of 50%-100%+ is expected. After all, FTX and Alameda The resources are still there, and the market also needs to rebuild confidence, so it should get a lot of help.
The most important thing is whether his restart can bring about a wave of bankrupt sectors. This is what we need to think about.
In the first year of the bull market, why do everyone have different cards?
The three-year bull market is by no means a straight upward line, but a winding curve full of ups and downs. 36 months, any few months of consolidation can bury a lot of leverage.
Reasonable expectations:
Trees will not rise to the sky all at once, Rome was not built in a day, and bull markets often take two or three years to maximize.
In 2023, it will be a process of establishing a stable base of 20,000 and 30,000 US dollars.
In 2024, it will be a process of establishing a stable base of 40,000 and 60,000 US dollars.
In 2025, it will be a process of prosperity and growth that cannot be quantified.
If you buy good cards for more than 10,000 or 20,000 US dollars, you can expect 100% profit this year, the lower the higher.
If you buy crappy cards for over 30,000 or 40,000 dollars. We can only expect annualized growth in 2024, the second year of the bull market.
Of course, it has only exceeded $30,000 now.
If the market rises excessively and exceeds $40,000 in the second half of the year, or in the first half of the year, more people will definitely buy it.
In the same year, there are far more people who buy more than US$30,000/US$40,000 than those who buy more than US$10,000/US$20,000.
