Original Mike Foresight Research 2024-02-04 12:16 Published in the UK
A. Market View
1. Macro liquidity
Monetary liquidity deteriorated. The Federal Reserve continued to remain on hold at this week's interest rate meeting, severely damaging expectations of a rate cut in March. The target range for the federal funds rate remains at 5.25-5.50%. Since the rate hike in July 2023, the Fed's policy rate has remained at a 22-year high. Banks began to explode, and all signs suggest that liquidity risks may erupt in the next concentrated period. The US dollar index turned up, and the decline of US stocks widened to the largest drop in half a year. The crypto market followed the decline of US stocks.
2. Market conditions
The top 100 companies with the highest market capitalization:
This week, BTC rebounded after an oversold trend, and altcoins were active. The market focus was mainly on re-staking and SUI.
1. JUP: It is a trading platform on the Solana chain, similar to 1INCH+GMX. Its aggregated income accounts for 60% of the Solana chain's transaction volume, but spot trading is still not the leader. It is currently listed on a major exchange, and its total market value exceeds Unisawp. 2. PENDLE: It is the leader in interest rate derivatives, benefiting from the concept of re-staking, and its TVL is growing rapidly. The re-staking leader Eigenlayer is about to airdrop, and the annualized yield forecast of the protocol nesting dolls for re-staking ETH will reach 50%, and defi big players will form teams to participate. The re-staking protocols that may have airdrops include Ether.fi, Swell, Puffer, Renzo, Eigenpie, etc. 3. TAO: It is the leader in AI computing power in the POW mode, and the Polkadot ecosystem. The new proposal is to split sub-coins, and each subnet will issue sub-coins. Recently, Vitalik Buterin wrote an article that is optimistic about the combination of Crypto and AI, and gave an example of being optimistic about TAO.
3. BTC market
1) On-chain data
BTC's trend is similar to previous halving rounds. The real market average price is $33,000, and historically during market uptrends, the cost is usually retested as support. This phenomenon is partly due to the large number of redemptions that occurred in Grayscale's GBTC product. As a closed-end trust fund, GBTC has accumulated 660,000 BTC in 21 years. Since the conversion, 110,000 BTC have been redeemed from the GBTC ETF, which has created huge market resistance.
The market value of stablecoins increased by 0.6% month-on-month. In the fourth quarter of 2023, USDT's parent company Tether's profit reached US$2.8 billion, which created the highest profit in Tether's history. In 2023, Tether's total profit reached US$6.2 billion.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV falls below the key level of 1, and the holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 1.40, entering the recovery stage.
Institutional crypto investment products saw significant net outflows, with major funds withdrawing at an accelerated pace.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rate: This week's rate is normal, and the market sentiment is neutral. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, and there is more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the rate is -0.1-0%, and there is more short leverage, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures open interest: BTC open interest fell this week as major market players retreated.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.5, market sentiment is normal. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, above 2.0 is more greedy. Long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and its reference value is weakened.
3) Spot market
BTC rebounded after a sharp drop to form a right shoulder. The monthly trend is similar to that in June 2019. It is expected that the first quarter will be adjusted as the main tone. After all, the current US fundamentals do not support a rate cut too quickly or too early. As for whether the rate cut will be in March or May, as long as the trading direction is clear, there will be some retracements before the bull market.
B. Market Data
1. Total locked-up amount of public chains
2. TVL Proportion of Each Public Chain
This week, the total TVL was 56.4 billion USD, an overall increase of 2.1 billion USD, or about 3.9%. This week, BTC rebounded slightly to above 43,000. This week, the TVL of mainstream public chains rose and fell. The ETH chain and ARB chain fell by less than 1%, the BSC chain and TRON chain rose by about 1%, and the SOLANA chain rose by 17%. The most noteworthy one is that the SUI chain rose by 26% this week, and the monthly cumulative increase was 104%.
3. Locked Amount of Each Chain Protocol
1) ETH locked amount
2) BSC locked amount
3) Polygon locked-up amount
4) Arbitrum locked amount
5) Optimism locked amount
6) Base lock-up amount
7) Solana locked amount
4. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT market situation
3) NFT trading market share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
The NFT market fell sharply this week, and the floor prices of the top blue-chip projects in the NFT market all fell this week. MAYC fell 8%, BAYC fell 7%, Azuki fell 10%, Pudgy Penguins, LilPudgys and Milady all fell by about 20%. NFT trading volume also fell sharply this week, with a decline of about 30%. The number of first-time and repeat buyers of NFTs is also declining, and the overall sentiment of the NFT market is extremely depressed.
V. Latest project financing situation
6. Post-investment dynamics
1）Ion Protocol - DeFi
Ion Protocol released the Staking and Resatking Ecosystem Dashboard to help users better understand LST, LRT and other DeFi expansion protocols.
For more details, please visit: https://ionprotocol.notion.site/ab5a83ceb5d84770829d1a03be4630fb?v=dfe9975fee3c47b09c783557bf67f4dc
2）Engine of Fury - GameFi
Engine of Fury's Alpha gameplay is now live, and is scheduled to be released for a week from 02.29 to 03.06, where participants can receive token $FURY allocations and NFT rewards. The full game is expected to be released in the second half of the year.
Currently, Engine of Fury has signed contracts with more than 250 web3 KOLs, with a total of more than 15 million fans. It has also signed contracts with a number of e-sports stars, with a total of more than 5 million fans.
Engine of Fury currently has 150,000 community members, with popular activity posts reaching 200,000 views on Twitter and popular TikTok posts reaching over 8 million views.
3) Node Guardians - Infrastructure
Node Guardians' first Hacker House will be held in Denver from February 23 to March 4. We have recruited and prepared support for 8 hackers.
