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כמו שפרסמתי דו״ח PCI יצא מעל הצפי וזה הסיבה לירידות

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צהריים טובים, השבוע המשכנו את הריצה לצד עם תנודתיות גבוהה. יום שישי: SPY התחיל את השבוע חיובי וסיים אדום עם ירידה חדה. BTC היה בירידה לאורך כל השבוע. דעתי היא שאנחנו מצמצמים פערים מנובמבר, קצת לפני שעליית טראמפ תפסה תאוצה. ביטקוין עלה חזק בהשוואה לשוק הכללי. בדרך כלל, יש קורלציה יחסית גבוהה בין השווקים, וכרגע אנו נמצאים בתהליך של איזון, ולכן הקורלציה נמוכה יותר, אלא אם כן מתרחש אירוע גלובלי משמעותי (כמו שקרה בשבוע שעבר). מה הלאה? 📌 מניות: אנחנו בעיצומה של עונת הדוחות הרבעוניים, ולכן נראה מניות שיגיבו בתנודתיות חדה – ללא קשר למגמת השוק הכללית. 📌 שווקים: כרגע מבולגנים מאוד ואין כיוון ברור. בנוסף, קיימת אי-וודאות בנוגע להשלכות מהמהלכים של טראמפ, במיוחד בהקשר למלחמת הסחר. לדעתי, השוק מאוד מסוכן כרגע, ואני רואה הרבה מניפולציות מתרחשות. בגלל זה, השבוע פעלתי רק בטריידים קצרים, שנמשכו בין דקות לשעות ספורות. האירוע המרכזי השבוע: 📅 יום רביעי – 15:30 📢 יתפרסם דוח PCI(מדד האינפלציה החודשי) של ארה"ב. 📈 הצפי של האנליסטים הוא לעלייה באינפלציה.🔴 הגישה שלי כרגע לשוק היא שלילית, הן ברמה הטכנית והן ברמה הפונדמנטלית. עם זאת, אני מאמין שנדרש עוד אירוע משמעותי שיזעזע את השוק ויביא להחלטה ברורה – למעלה או למטה. ⚠ תפעלו בזהירות. שיהיה לנו שבוע מבורך!🚀

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What’s coming this week? Chaos. I will be extremely cautious because conditions are far from ideal. Regarding earnings reports, I won’t go into detail for two reasons: 1. Many reports contradict each other. 2. The current market uncertainty outweighs any single report coming out this week. Final words Trade like professionals. • Risk management must be precise. • No unnecessary trades. • And most importantly—if things aren’t working, step away. It’s far better than taking losses. Wishing everyone a successful week with only good news! 🫶🏽

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Important Post 💣 I want to address a few key events that have happened and are unfolding right now. Last week’s tech stock decline At the beginning of last week, we saw a decline in tech stocks due to a new AI tool called Deepseek—a competitor to ChatGPT. The catch? Its cost. While tech giants are pouring billions into AI development, a small group of Chinese developers managed to achieve insane results with just a $5 million budget. This doesn’t mean the major tech companies are done for, but it does raise serious questions about the massive sums being spent and the cost-benefit ratio of their AI projects. For now, I’m watching from the sidelines. Major market gaps expected tomorrow We’re about to open with massive downward gaps—so what’s happening? Trump strikes again On Friday, January 31st, the White House announced new import taxes on goods from several countries: • Mexico & Canada – 25% import tax • China – 10% import tax The reasoning? The administration claims it’s a measure to tackle illegal immigration. In reality, it’s aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing and reducing the U.S. trade deficit. Of course, the affected countries strongly condemned the move, and some have already retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods. BRICS under threat In addition, the U.S. has issued warnings to BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) against launching a new currency or moving their trade away from the U.S. dollar. The warning? Any country that refuses to comply will face a 100% tariff on its exports to the U.S. A quick refresher on BRICS: Their goal is to replace the U.S. dollar in global trade and reduce dependence on the U.S. financial system. At the beginning of January 2025, several new countries joined the BRICS alliance: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, UAE, Argentina, and Ethiopia. Why is the market dropping? A trade war is brewing, and investors hate instability. Many prefer to lock in profits or recalculate their positions rather than be exposed to a volatile and unpredictable environment.

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Good afternoon, Here’s a quick overview of the market: We’ve opened the day in the red, reminiscent of April 20th but on a smaller scale, following a few days after Japan’s interest rate hike. Unlike the previous time, this wasn’t a surprise—it was anticipated. The last time this happened, the drop was much sharper, with declines of: • 15% in BTC • 4% in SPY, followed by a wild surge at the market’s opening. Will it happen again this time? It’s impossible to say. As I’ve mentioned before, Trump delayed the inevitable market downturn, but in the long term, I believe it’s unavoidable. In the short term, looking at reports, things seem relatively positive, as I wrote yesterday. However, always remember that anything can happen, and you must be prepared for all scenarios. Stick to your strategy, and if market conditions don’t align with it, take a step back—don’t chase trades. Opportunities will never run out. 🚀

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