According to the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range in March is as high as 64.5%, while the probability of choosing to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is 35.5%. Regarding expectations for May, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged has dropped to 5.4%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points has increased to 62.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut has reached 32.5%.
These data show that the Federal Reserve has some uncertainty about the future trend of interest rates. It may maintain the current interest rate level or take interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth. Due to changes in the economic environment and data, the Federal Reserve may make decisions based on data evaluation. For investors, they need to pay attention to changes in economic data and the Fed's decision-making dynamics in order to better grasp investment opportunities and risk control.
