On January 31, the crypto market was further affected by the global tightening of cryptocurrency control, and cryptocurrencies fell. As of press time, BTC fell by about 1.66% to around $42,660; ETH fell by 1.52% to around $2,305; SOL fell by 4.8% to around $99.7.
On January 30, German police temporarily seized 50,000 BTC worth about $2.17 billion in a piracy enforcement operation and are currently investigating its commercial money laundering activities.
On January 30, the Financial Times reported that the Metropolitan Police Department revealed for the first time that it had seized more than 60,000 BTC from a major Chinese investment fraud scheme (the case took place in 2018).
On January 31, in order to prevent digital financial risks, my country's Anti-Money Laundering Law underwent its first major revision. Virtual asset money laundering crimes will be included in it, and it is clearly stated that my country will prohibit the provision or acceptance of services for virtual currencies.
Although my country has also been "banning" crypto trading, mining and other related businesses in the country since 2017, it has only remained at the level of "verbal orders" and tightening of relevant "connecting agency controls" (banks, electricity bills, etc.).
The inclusion of this law in the Anti-Money Laundering Act means that the era of "ambiguity" will be gone forever, and the enforcement of crypto-related transactions will become legal. Although it will not be signed into law until after 2025, it will have a huge and irreversible negative impact on the crypto market.
You should know that my country has always been an important part of the global crypto market transactions, with a transaction volume of about 30% of the world in 2023. It is also a country with advanced global development of cryptocurrency mining companies and "mining" (accounting for more than 70% of the world before 2017).
In addition, a large portion of the trading volume of crypto exchanges including Binance, OKX, Gate and HTX comes from the Chinese market (half of the trading volume of Binance, OKX and HTX may come from my country).
BTC spot ETF sales
According to BitMEX Research data, 10 BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of 5,689.9 BTC on the 13th trading day, and a cumulative net inflow of 27,339.7 BTC in 13 trading days.
Among them, GBTC had a net outflow of 5068 BTC, and a cumulative net outflow of 131,549.7 BTC in 13 trading days. BlackRock IBIT had a net inflow of 6870.3 BTC, and a cumulative net inflow of 63,409.5 BTC in 13 trading days. Fidelity FBTC had a net inflow of 2734 BTC, with a net inflow of US$119 million.
It is worth noting that the net outflow of BTC from Grayscale GBTC continued to slow down, while the other nine stocks experienced a brief "counterattack" yesterday due to the emergence of publicity opportunities.
According to the latest news monitored by Arkham, on the fourteenth trading day, Grayscale transferred 7963.56 BTC to the Coinbase Prime address, worth approximately US$341 million.
market expectation
Just now, the ADP employment data released by the United States in January showed that the number of employed people increased by 107,000 in January, compared with an increase of 164,000 in the previous month (which has been revised down to 158,000). This data is lower than market expectations and is consistent with the gradual cooling of the labor market.
In the current US economic situation, the employment data being lower than expected may be a good thing! Because, to a certain extent, this will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts and help slow down the balance sheet reduction in advance.
It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting was held on February 1. The market is currently optimistic about this meeting, believing that the Fed's dovish remarks will likely clarify the approximate time for the end of the balance sheet reduction.
In the crypto market, unlike the previous market bets on bearishness, market sentiment reversed during the previous period of rise.
According to data from The Block, the total trading volume of ETH options in January has soared to nearly $20 billion (currently $19.99 billion), of which about $15 billion came from the Deribit platform. According to Deribit data, most (about 74,548) open ETH options contracts are call options with an exercise price of $2,500, which will expire on Friday, February 23.
This means that the market is betting that ETH will rise in the upcoming February market due to the hype of ETH spot ETFs and the Ethereum Cancun upgrade.
