At the beginning of every year, I will make a macro-level forecast, sometimes for half a year, sometimes for a whole year. Last year, I predicted the rebound in March and the market at the end of the year, but I didn’t expect that the market at the end of the year would be an explosive bull market.
Back to 2024, the long-awaited Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved. Next, there will be the Bitcoin halving and the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the macro level. The combination of multiple factors will form an unprecedented bull market. However, the bull market is not smooth sailing. It must be after the baptism of wind and rain that a global consensus can be formed.
Therefore, it is estimated that in the first half of this year, which can also be understood as before the halving, the market was mainly affected by certain institutions or policy levels, and has been in a suppressed state. What we see now is that Grayscale continues to sell, so there may be BTC shares compensated by MTGOX in the future, and even the number of Bitcoins held by the US government and the Chinese government can also affect the short-term market trend. In addition, it is not ruled out that the United States will introduce more stringent regulatory policies in the first half of the year. So overall, January is about to pass, let’s not talk about it. The coming February may still be dominated by adjustments, and then the low point in February is a good buying opportunity. Everyone must remember that before Bitcoin halving, it is an opportunity for everyone to buy, not to cut losses and leave.
Calculated based on the halving block height, the halving of Bitcoin in 2024 will be around April 5, so there will be halving hype in March, but don’t get too excited because there will be institutional suppression, so the halving hype will not be too fomo.
Then after the halving in April, the market will not be ignited instantly, but will be gradually digested and accepted by the market. With the end of institutional suppression, the market will gradually recover after the halving.
However, it is important to emphasize here that although the overall market will not go crazy, there are still many opportunities to participate in the Bitcoin-related ecosystem, and the development of the ecosystem will not be affected by the weakness of the overall market. This is very certain, so market confidence will continue and will not end due to the adjustment of the overall market. As retail investors, we still need to be good at exploring the Alpha of the related ecosystem and actively participate, and not lose confidence due to the weakness of the overall market.
After the Bitcoin halving in April, there were signs of a gradual adjustment in April and May. Then the real rise began in July and the market will gradually explode. The bull market that everyone has been looking forward to for two years will officially break out. Starting from July this year, the market will continue to rise. That is the time when I said that the world will reach a consensus on Bitcoin. Both retail investors and institutions will go crazy for fomo, but please remember that it officially starts in July and it’s okay to treat it as an appetizer.
After July, the overall consensus of the market was formed, and then the world officially entered the hype of the cryptocurrency bull market. This is a market with real institutional participation, so it will definitely not be the same as before. The surge that you can't imagine will break out at that time, so you must have chips in your hand, otherwise you will be very anxious. August and September are all such market conditions. At that time, there will be many ecological projects, and Bitcoin ecological projects are more easily accepted by the market and fomo, so I have always suggested that retail investors abandon the Ethereum ecosystem and embrace the Bitcoin ecosystem, because the Bitcoin ecosystem has a low valuation in the early stage, and you can get relatively high-quality chips at a very low cost. The high-quality projects I am talking about here are not air inscriptions that rely on mouth-pulling, but some high-quality projects with landing products and empowerment, with strong technical background and strong marketing capabilities. Of course, the Ethereum ecosystem also has a lot of opportunities, such as the various L2s after the Cancun upgrade and the subsequent ZK ecosystem, and modular public chains, DA layers, etc. are all very high-quality hype targets.
After the surge in July, August, and September, there will be a retracement in October, but the strength of this retracement is not expected to be too great. Instead, the retracement is the best opportunity to get on board. The final big explosion will be ignited in November and December. By the end of the year, Bitcoin will reach at least 100,000+. However, don’t be carried away by the rise. There will definitely be a big retracement after the surge. Everyone knows that institutions are not here to help you carry the sedan chair, but to make money. Institutions will withdraw when they make a profit, because institutions have year-end financial reports and liquidation work, so there will be a big retracement after the high point in December.
In summary, there won’t be much market before the halving, but there are many projects and opportunities in the related ecosystem. We cannot lose confidence due to the adjustment of the market, and we must still participate actively. After the halving, in Q3 and Q4, the market will officially enter an explosive rise, so don’t be afraid, the first half of this year is the best time to lay out (if you haven’t laid out yet).
Finally, a few words: Embrace the Bitcoin ecosystem, you will not suffer any loss. Embrace depin, desci, pow, rwa, game tracks, and party with global players. Embrace mainstream high-quality public chains, capital speculation on new rather than old, embrace value long-term investment.
If you want to keep up and learn, Qiqi's small circle welcomes communication. I wish you good luck.#etf #chz $BTC
