Ethereum ETF application delayed! SEC: Needs more time to consider

After the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, whether the Ethereum spot ETF can follow suit has become a hotly discussed topic in the currency circle. However, many experts are skeptical that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will be willing to let it go this time.

According to official documents, the U.S. SEC has postponed BlackRock’s Ethereum spot ETF application and will decide again on March 10. The Committee believes that a longer period is needed to allow sufficient time to address the issues involved.

Although some people are looking forward to the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF because of the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said that the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF is only Limited to a single cryptocurrency. "As I said two weeks ago, our decision on the Bitcoin Spot ETF is limited to this non-security commodity and should not be interpreted to mean anything else."

Looking back at the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, it was also a thrilling journey. A total of two members voted against it, and finally won by one vote. Gensler made it clear that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission still has not recognized Bitcoin and the approval of spot ETFs, which does not mean that the Commission is willing to approve the listing standards of crypto-asset securities.

There are two schools of thought: optimism and pessimism! What do industry experts think?

The tough attitude and rhetoric of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission have led many industry experts to doubt whether it is possible to approve an Ethereum spot ETF in the short term.

Take an optimistic view: development paths are similar

Those who are expected to approve the Ethereum spot ETF this year point out that the promotion method and development process are actually similar to the Bitcoin spot ETF.

Matt Kunke, a research analyst at crypto market maker GSR, believes there is a 75% chance that the Ethereum ETF will be approved in May this year.

Kunke analyzed that if the SEC rejects the application for an Ethereum spot ETF in May, the applicant institution will inevitably file an appeal. Under such circumstances, approving an Ethereum ETF would be the SEC’s option of least resistance, while maintaining the SEC’s skeptical stance on other cryptocurrencies.

Philippe Bekhazi, founder and CEO of institutional crypto trading platform , should have the opportunity to be considered equal.

In addition, if market conditions remain strong, it will put further pressure on the SEC. "It is definitely a question of when to approve, not if to approve."

Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, also previously pointed out that there is about a 70% chance of an Ethereum ETF being approved this year. His colleague James Seyffart gave a more cautious estimate, "We think the chance of approval is over 50%, but far less confident than we are for the Bitcoin ETF, so the chance may be About 60-65%.

Take a pessimistic view: SEC takes a tough stance

Based on the SEC’s overall stance on crypto ETFs, some analysts are skeptical about the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, pointed out that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has repeatedly made it clear that it considers most cryptoassets to be investment contracts subject to securities laws and therefore excludes them from exchange-traded products that are single non-security commodities.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, an analyst at JPMorgan who is currently an authorized participant in three Bitcoin spot ETFs, also agreed with this view and said that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve Ethereum in May. To create a spot ETF, Ethereum must be classified as a commodity rather than a security.

However, the U.S. SEC has not wavered or relaxed its position on Ethereum in its current public statements, so it may be difficult to pass the application in May.

Investment bank TD Cowen pointed out that the SEC may also want to observe a Bitcoin spot ETF for a while before launching any other crypto ETFs. TD Cowen's Washington research group, led by Jaret Seiberg, believes the wait may not be as long as 26 months, but will likely occur after the election.

Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, predicted that the probability of the Ethereum spot ETF being approved is less than 50% because the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission remains hostile to the cryptocurrency industry.

Regardless of whether experts hold a positive or negative attitude, it is undeniable that Ethereum is indeed following the development path of Bitcoin spot ETF. In addition, during the application process, Bitcoin was also delayed until the last minute before it was finally approved. Therefore, most ETF analysts believe that the final review date in May this year is the real key.

References: cointelegraph, The Block, The Block

Review editor: Gao Jingyuan

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