Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst for Bloomberg, brought attention to a report by Markus Thielen that boldly predicts the rejection of all applications for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this month. Thielen’s contrarian stance challenges the prevailing market sentiment, which has been eagerly anticipating SEC approval.

All eyes on Bitcoin ETF

Thielen’s report, titled “The Potential Ramifications if SEC Rejects Bitcoin Spot ETFs Next Week,” underscores the divergence from the general optimism regarding Bitcoin’s surge to $45,000 by Christmas and a potential push to $50,000 by January 2024. This surge is contingent upon meeting the SEC requirements for Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Despite the widespread anticipation, Thielen suggests that all proposals might fall short of a crucial requirement, potentially leading to a sweeping rejection.

Eric Balchunas sought clarification from Thielen, asking whether the rejection prediction is based on any sourcing, such as information from issuers or inside the SEC, or if it is more of an opinion. Balchunas expressed confusion, given Thielen’s previous bullish stance on Bitcoin and recent tweets suggesting executive expectations of approval.

Bloomberg expert clarifies

Balchunas highlighted that stating the SEC’s rejection goes against information provided by multiple sources, including mainstream news reporters and crypto experts like James Seyffart of Bloomberg. He emphasized that overturning this collective intel would be a major development.

While not ruling out the possibility of rejection, Balchunas stated that they have heard nothing to indicate it and that many news organizations are aligning with their perspective based on their independent reporting. He added that they still are 90% sure about that.

Adding to the uncertainty, crypto investment services provider Matrixport expects the SEC to reject all applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF this month. Matrixport’s expectation is grounded in its analysis of SEC requirements and the current political landscape, particularly noting the dominance of Democrats among the SEC Commissioners.

As the SEC’s decision deadline approaches, market participants are closely watching for any developments that could impact the crypto landscape, with Thielen’s contrarian prediction injecting an element of unpredictability into the mix.

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