According to Odaily, JPMorgan has indicated that the recent election results have diminished the likelihood of intense debates over the U.S. debt ceiling in the first half of 2025. This development also alleviates uncertainties surrounding the evolution of the Treasury General Account (TGA). The debt ceiling has been suspended until January 1, 2025, after which the U.S. Treasury will begin employing extraordinary measures and its cash reserves to meet its debt obligations.
JPMorgan suggests that if the Treasury's forecast for the TGA in the fourth quarter of 2024 is set at $700 billion, with a slight increase in extraordinary measures, it is unlikely that the Treasury will exhaust its resources before July 2025. This scenario reduces the risk of a technical default. The bank's analysis provides a more stable outlook for the U.S. financial landscape, as the Treasury's ability to manage its obligations without immediate pressure from the debt ceiling debate is seen as a positive outcome. This assessment underscores the importance of strategic financial planning and the impact of political developments on economic stability.
