This week, the U.S. election faces the ultimate battle which may trigger nuclear-level alerts, with dollar bulls fully loaded; as the worst non-farm payroll report in four years lands, the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is nearly fully priced in.
This week's market focus includes the U.S. election, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and the Bank of England interest rate decision. The U.S. will hold its 2024 presidential election starting this Tuesday. Many major polls still show a close race between Trump and Harris.
Key event timeline: Tuesday: Voting for the 2024 U.S. presidential election begins, with Trump and Harris in a tight race, market expectations are tense. Wednesday: The Bank of Japan releases the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting (07:50); the U.S. Treasury announces a new season of bond issuance plans (21:30); Friday: Federal Reserve interest rate decision (03:00), with the market generally predicting a 25 basis point rate cut; a press conference with Fed Chair Powell will follow, possibly revealing future monetary policy direction.
According to PANews, Token Unlocks data shows that tokens like NEON, BANANA, and ADA will experience significant unlocks this week, among them:
Banana Gun (BANANA) will unlock approximately 250,000 tokens at 8:00 AM UTC+8 on November 8, accounting for 7.21% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $11.7 million;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8:00 AM UTC+8 on November 6, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $6.2 million;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 5:00 PM UTC+8 on November 6, accounting for 0.45% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $4.5 million;
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens at 3:00 AM UTC+8 on November 6, accounting for 0.69% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $3.1 million;
Hashflow (HFT) will unlock approximately 13.62 million tokens at 8:00 AM UTC+8 on November 7, accounting for 2.92% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $1.6 million.
● BTC and ETH forward volatility surges as traders prepare for election results
According to BlockBeats, on November 4, Derive.xyz founder Nick Forster analyzed that the forward volatility of BTC and ETH surged overnight.
The Bitcoin volatility is at 80.30%, up from the previous 72.20%, while Ethereum volatility is at 82.92%, up from the previous 75.40%. Nick Forster stated that this reflects that traders are preparing for the election results, with a two-thirds chance of significant price volatility on election night. The volatility range for BTC is between -8.97% to +9.85%, and for ETH, it is between -9.25% to +10.19%.
He added that the total open contracts for BTC call options are 1,179, while put options are 885, indicating that the market still leans bullish.
● JPMorgan report: U.S. election may affect tax policy and market stability
According to Odaily Planet Daily, JPMorgan recently released a report highlighting the potential impact of the U.S. election on tax policy, government debt, and market stability, providing guidance for investors. JPMorgan analysts noted that key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will expire in 2025, and Congress may revisit tax policy; not extending these measures could significantly increase taxes.
The report states that if the temporary provisions in the TCJA expire, individual tax rates will revert to higher levels, reducing after-tax income for all American households by 1.8%, while the after-tax income for the top 1% of earners will decrease by 3.1%. JPMorgan expects that both parties may push for at least partial extensions of the TCJA, but the specifics will depend on the election results. Regarding the national deficit, JPMorgan anticipates that proposals from both Trump and Harris would increase the deficit, potentially affecting bond yields.
The report notes that if all policy proposals are realized, the deficit could increase by $1 trillion under Harris's leadership and by nearly $4 trillion under Trump's leadership over the next 10 years. While debt concerns are evident, JPMorgan states that some worries may be exaggerated.
The report explains that while the trajectory of debt and deficits poses a risk, some concerns are unfounded. JPMorgan also discussed the possibility of extended or contested elections, noting that it is hard to say when election results will be known, and it may take one or two weeks to receive a clear answer. If the election is close, court challenges and other legal actions are expected by the end of the year. Analysts recommend that investors, after the new government is confirmed, often see stock market volatility decrease quickly, with markets rising 12 months after the election. Do not let elections disrupt plans; election results will not drive long-term market returns.
JPMorgan analysts also predict that a Trump victory may lead retail investors to shift towards risk assets, thereby driving up the prices of Bitcoin and gold.
● The ETF Store president predicts inflows for Ethereum spot ETF will rebound
According to Odaily Planet Daily, The ETF Store president Nate Geraci posted on X, stating: "I still stand by my prediction from earlier this year. It is only a matter of time before inflows for Ethereum spot ETF begin to rebound, although it may take some time. In any case, iShares Ethereum ETF is the sixth among the 600 ETFs launched this year."
● He Yi: Binance Launchpool and other listing airdrop rules are transparent and clear
Binance co-founder He Yi stated on the X platform that if a project does not pass the screening process, no matter how much money or what percentage of tokens it holds, it cannot be listed on Binance.
-DYOR Projects already listed on Binance have clear descriptions in the token distribution section; please analyze the percentages yourself to understand if there is such a thing as 20%, 15%, etc.
-Airdrop rules for Binance's Launchpool and other listing airdrops are transparent and clear, but it does not mean that all projects willing to provide airdrops can be listed on Binance.
-FUD will never disappear, but it makes us stronger. Gossip is easy to get attention; business competition is always full of dark sides; when you understand the rules of how this world operates, you will no longer be easily swayed by rumors and gain the ability to think independently.
-People like AC, who dare to speak the truth amid the noise, are the ones truly deserving of respect in the community.
According to BlockBeats, Simon Gerovich, CEO of the publicly listed Japanese company Metaplanet, stated that the company's adoption of a Bitcoin investment strategy has led to its stock price rising approximately 1,017% year to date, making it the best-performing Japanese stock of 2024.
The company launched its Bitcoin program in April and has since become the second-largest holder of Bitcoin in Asia, second only to Boya Interactive. According to Yahoo Finance, its stock price has increased by 740% in six months, climbing from $190 in April to $1,596 at Friday's close.
The company currently holds 1,018.17 BTC, with an average purchase price of $61,800, resulting in an unrealized gain of over $6 million based on the current BTC price.
