According to PANews, Token Unlocks data shows that TIA, SUI, and OP tokens will see large unlocks this week, among which:
Celestia (TIA) will unlock approximately 175.6 million tokens at 10 PM on October 30, UTC+8, accounting for 79.75% of the current circulation, worth about $941 million;
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 64.19 million tokens at 8 AM on November 1, UTC+8, accounting for 2.32% of the current circulation, worth about $116 million;
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8 AM on October 31, UTC+8, accounting for 2.50% of the current circulation, worth about $49.5 million;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 32.47 million tokens at 8 AM on November 1, UTC+8, accounting for 1.98% of the current circulation, worth about $43.19 million;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8 AM on November 1, UTC+8, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulation, worth about $6.2 million;
dydx (DYDX) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8 AM on November 1, UTC+8, accounting for 1.29% of the current circulation, worth about $8.1 million;
Manta Network (MANTA) will unlock approximately 1.87 million tokens at 7:59 AM on November 1, UTC+8, accounting for 0.49% of the current circulation, worth about $1.2 million;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3 PM on October 30, UTC+8, accounting for 0.47% of the current circulation, worth about $4.5 million;
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) will unlock approximately 3.5 million tokens at 8 AM on October 28, UTC+8, accounting for 0.13% of the current circulation, worth about $4.3 million;
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens at 3 AM on October 30, UTC+8, accounting for 0.69% of the current circulation, worth about $3.8 million.
● Morgan Stanley analyst: The 2024 US presidential election may exacerbate market volatility
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Morgan Stanley analysts Monica Guerra and Daniel Kohen analyzed the potential impact of the 2024 US presidential election on the market in their report, noting mixed economic signals and increased uncertainty for investors.
They explained that consumer sentiment fluctuations and persistently high prices are affecting voter opinions, while traditional market indicators cannot provide clear predictions about election outcomes. Nevertheless, Guerra and Kohen believe that business and economic cycles may be more relevant to market performance.
Analysts advise investors to focus on long-term strategies rather than reacting to election-driven market changes. Delays in election results could lead to increased volatility; historically, this has caused short-term market fluctuations to intensify. Due to tight polling results in key swing states and uncertain mail-in ballot counting times, final results may take days or even weeks to reveal, potentially triggering significant market turmoil.
Guerra and Kohen expect that as the campaign accelerates, proposals heat up, and competition for swing state voters intensifies, the final sprint on election day will be contentious. Unexpected political events or disclosures may have slight impacts on the election, while mail-in voting and phased counting may leave election results undecided for a period, exacerbating market volatility.
● This week's macroeconomic indicators: Focus on how PCE and non-farm data affect the US rate cut path
According to Wu Says Blockchain, the IMF last week lowered its global economic forecast for next year, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows the US economy remains sluggish; this week will see a dual 'bombardment' of inflation and employment indicators from the Federal Reserve, with the strong combination of US September core PCE and October non-farm report being key factors influencing the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate cut pace.
Key events this week (UTC+8)
October 30
US October ADP employment (10,000 people) (20:15) US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate initial value (20:30) US Q3 core PCE price index annualized quarterly growth rate initial value (20:30)
October 31
The Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and outlook report US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending October 26 (10,000 people) (20:30) US September core PCE price index year-on-year (20:30)
November 01
US October unemployment rate (20:30) US October seasonally adjusted non-farm employment (10,000 people) (20:30)
● CME 'Fed Watch': The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November is 97.7%
According to Jinse Data, CME 'Fed Watch' indicates that the probability of the Fed cutting 25 basis points by November is 97.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 2.3%. The probability of maintaining the current rate until December is 0.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points cut is 27.7%, with a cumulative 50 basis points cut probability of 71.7%.
● Nic Carter: The hype around meme coins is a reaction to the SEC's oppressive regulation
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Castle Island Ventures co-founder Nic Carter stated on his social platform that the hype around meme coins is largely a reaction to the oppressive regulation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Nic Carter also stated that if the SEC regulates rationally, the demand for trading meme coins will decrease. But like the last decade, the fundamental desire to trade meme tokens always exists.
● Analysis: Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands have recently narrowed to historic lows
According to Jinse Finance, technical analyst Tony Severino stated that Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands are currently at one of the three narrowest levels in history, indicating a major price movement is imminent. The Bollinger Bands are indicators used to measure price volatility and trend direction. When the Bollinger Bands narrow to their tightest levels, it is typically referred to as a 'Bollinger Squeeze', indicating the market is in a low-volatility state, potentially creating conditions for a strong breakout.
Historical data shows that when the Bollinger Bands narrow, Bitcoin's price often experiences significant changes. For example, similar contractions occurred in April 2016 and July 2023, both of which were followed by substantial price increases. However, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands can only indicate the possibility of volatility and cannot predict the direction of the movement, meaning the market could experience either a significant rise or a sharp decline.
Statistics show that in nine cases following the contraction of the Bollinger Bands, Bitcoin experienced an increase seven times.
Note: The Bollinger Bands consist of a middle band, upper band, and lower band, used to measure market volatility. When the Bollinger Bands narrow, it indicates the market is in a low-volatility period; when the Bollinger Bands widen, it indicates increased volatility. The Bollinger Squeeze refers to the extreme contraction of the Bollinger Bands, a precursor to market breakout.
