According to BlockBeats, on October 9, data from the prediction market Polymarket showed that the probability of the current candidates winning in the HBO documentary Satoshi Nakamoto's identity prediction has fallen below 4%.

Among them, Blockstream founder Adam Back has a 3.2% chance of being the highest candidate. Previously, Adam Back, Len Sassaman’s widow and others have denied the speculation about the identity of the relevant candidates as Satoshi Nakamoto.

The probability that Satoshi Nakamoto is "other people, multiple people" rises to 95.5%.