According to Jinshi Data, after the Federal Reserve kicked off the easing cycle with a 50 basis point interest rate cut, the foreign exchange market is turning its attention to the US presidential election in November for clues about the strength of the Fed's dovish policy in 2025.

A victory for Harris on Nov. 5 would increase the risk that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle next year would be deeper and longer-lasting, which could be negative for the dollar as markets believe U.S. inflation could cool if Harris, rather than Trump, takes office in January.