RBC economists: Unemployment rate rises to 4.4% could lead to 50 basis point rate cut

According to Odaily Planet Daily, RBC Capital Markets economist Michael Reid said that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.4%, a 50 basis point interest rate cut will become a high probability event.

But he also said the Fed would be cautious about cutting rates sharply if the unemployment rate falls and job growth remains at or above 100,000.

Especially with a presidential election approaching, the Fed could be accused of favoring the ruling party by cutting rates to boost the economy.

The futures market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this month, with cumulative cuts of 1 percentage point this year and several more 25 basis point cuts in 2025.