According to WuShuo, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged last week, and Powell said he would not wait until inflation fell to 2% before starting to cut interest rates. The market is still betting on a rate cut in September. This week, the focus will be on the US June core PCE price index and second quarter GDP.
Last week review:
●The Federal Reserve's Beige Book on economic conditions showed that the U.S. economy grew slightly, inflation cooled, and economic growth was expected to slow down in the next six months.
●The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged in July.
●Powell said the Fed will not wait until inflation falls to 2% before starting to cut interest rates.
●2024 FOMC voting member Daly expressed increasing confidence that inflation will return to target, and expected policy adjustments in the future.
●Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler believes that it would be appropriate to cut interest rates later this year and supports an early rate cut if the unemployment rate continues to rise.
●New York Fed President Williams said that interest rate cuts may be needed in the coming months, various inflation indicators are moving in the right direction, and more data will be obtained during the July-September period.
●Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller said the time for a rate cut is getting closer, but the magnitude remains an unresolved issue.
This week's key events and indicators:
July 24: July PMIs for the UK, Germany, France, Europe and other countries; Canada’s central bank’s interest rate decision on July 24.
July 25: The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 20, the preliminary value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States, and the preliminary value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the second quarter of the United States.
July 26: U.S. core PCE price index annual rate in June, final value of the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July.
