According to Cointelegraph: Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop, falling through the $58,000 mark as ongoing seller interest continues to impact the market throughout 2024. This marks the first time in 10 months that Bitcoin has crossed its 200-day moving average (MA), a key support line.
Main Takeaways:
1. Price Decline:
- Recent Drop: Bitcoin dipped more than 2% on July 4, reaching new local lows of $57,885 on Bitstamp.
- 200-Day MA: The 200-day moving average, a critical support level, was crossed for the first time since October 2023, sitting at $58,400 at the time of writing.
2. Market Conditions:
- Spot Selling: Steady selling from spot markets has created challenging conditions for Bitcoin bulls.
- Long Liquidations: Data from CoinGlass shows nearly $60 million in 24-hour Bitcoin long liquidations.
3. Analysis and Commentary:
- Trader Insights: Popular trader Skew noted that spot selling has been the main driver of the recent trend, emphasizing the need for market demand and reversal signs to stabilize the price.
- Long Liquidations: DecenTrader highlighted a significant amount of long liquidations lying in wait closer to $50,000, should the price break down further.
4. Sell-Side Pressure:
- Charles Edwards' Analysis: The founder of Capriole Investments pointed to significant sell-side pressure throughout the year, with net flows equivalent to $24 billion being dumped on the market in 2024.
Detailed Analysis:
Price Decline and Market Sentiment:
- Local Lows: Bitcoin reached new local lows of $57,885 on Bitstamp after the latest daily close, reflecting a more than 2% drop on July 4.
- 200-Day Moving Average: The crossing of the 200-day MA for the first time in 10 months is a significant technical event, indicating potential further downside if market conditions do not improve.
Market Conditions:
- Spot Selling: The steady selling from spot markets has been a primary factor in the recent price decline, creating unsavory conditions for Bitcoin bulls.
- Long Liquidations: CoinGlass data shows nearly $60 million in Bitcoin long liquidations over 24 hours, highlighting the impact of the recent price drop on leveraged positions.
Analysis and Commentary:
- Trader Skew's Insights: Skew noted that the trend rejection and reversal around $63.8K have been driven by spot selling. He emphasized the need for market demand and reversal signs for the 200-day MA to act as a systematic trigger for the market.
- DecenTrader's Observations: DecenTrader identified a significant amount of long liquidations closer to $50,000, suggesting that a further breakdown could lead to additional selling pressure.
Sell-Side Pressure:
- Charles Edwards' Analysis: Edwards pointed to significant sell-side pressure throughout the year, with net flows equivalent to $24 billion being dumped on the market. He noted that the United States spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in January, have been unable to absorb the fallout.
- Market Dynamics: Edwards emphasized that the ETFs are not the only demand in the current market, suggesting that other factors are also influencing the recent downside.
Bitcoin's recent decline below the $58,000 mark and the crossing of its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months highlight the ongoing challenges facing the cryptocurrency market. Steady spot selling and significant sell-side pressure have created difficult conditions for Bitcoin bulls, leading to nearly $60 million in long liquidations over 24 hours. While the market awaits signs of demand and reversal, the potential for further downside remains, with significant long liquidations lying in wait closer to $50,000. As the market navigates these dynamics, the 200-day MA will be a critical level to watch, with potential implications for Bitcoin's price trajectory in the coming months.
