According to Jinshi, Barclays economists said that the surge in oil prices may make the Philippine central bank vigilant. Higher oil prices may create imported inflationary pressures, which may prompt the Philippine central bank to raise its inflation expectations. Rice prices are another risk. However, it is expected that by the third quarter, the Philippine central bank will judge that inflation is on a sustained downward trend. This, coupled with the Federal Reserve's more accommodative policy, may lead the Philippine central bank to ease policy. Lower-than-expected economic growth may even prompt the central bank to act before the Fed, but fighting inflation will remain the top priority. Barclays expects the central bank to cut interest rates three times this year, starting in August.