GHST, Aavegotchi's native token, recently reached an all-time high. This historic achievement comes three years after the token was introduced, indicating strong growth and active community engagement in the blockchain gaming sector. Moreover, other on-chain gaming projects were outperformed in the last few days.
Ravencoin (RVN) is a protocol based on a fork of the Bitcoin code that includes features designed specifically to allow tokens to be issued on the Ravencoin blockchain. These tokens can have any properties that the issuer desires. The massive demand for this token last week doubled its price in four days to $0.06, and it is now trading at $0.418.
Another bitcoin code forked token, Bitcoin Cash ($BCH), received a lot of market attention last week. In just four days, the price of BCH soared from $540 to more than $700. Right now, BCH is trading at $626.
PENDLE, a leading project focused on restaking, reached an all-time high of $5.79 today. When PENDLE first listed on Binance on July 3, last year, it was trading at $0.77. In nine months, PENDLE's price increased 7.5x to $5.79, with a total value locked (TVL) of over $3.8 billion in assets.
Overall Market
The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last 30 days.
BTC is currently trading in this bullish pennant pattern. As long as the lower red line holds and BTC price finds support around $63,000, the market's bullish structure will continue.
Following the FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish comments about rate cuts boosted the market. However, the Swiss National Bank's surprise interest rate cut shifted the market narrative for major central banks. Previously, the market expected the Federal Reserve to be the first central bank to begin the rate cuts, with other major central banks following. The Swiss National Bank has become the first to pivot, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England potentially following before the Federal Reserve.
The US dollar will be the strongest currency if the Federal Reserve keeps its interest rate unchanged when other central banks are forced to begin their rate cuts. Powell's recent talks provided no clarity on the timing or scale of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.
With such a risk backdrop and the upcoming BTC halving, our desk noticed some profit-taking in the cryptocurrency space, and investors are holding cash on the slide line, waiting for more market clarity before making their next move.
Options Market
The above chart shows the 25-delta skewness change for BTC options last week.
BTC reward halving day is approaching, with an estimated date of April 19, 2024. Based on the price actions around the halving time in the previous three halvings, our desk anticipates the market to be volatile in the two weeks around the halving.
With the Federal Reserve's muddled macro guidance, our desk found that options traders were more willing to buy puts to protect their downside risk than to buy calls for upside potential.
The short-tenor options are trading with a negative skewness on the market, while the intermediate and long-tenor options are trading at a similar skewness level as last week.
However, our desk noticed a difference in the ETH options.
The above chart shows the 25-delta skewness change for ETH options last week.
The 25-delta skews of ETH options in the 7-day and 30-day expiry options are negative, but the skews are increasing from a week ago. An upward trend was also observed in the 60-day expiry ETH options.
It indicates that options traders are changing their outlook on ETH prices over the next two months. One reason could be that options traders are betting on the SEC's approval of the Ethereum spot ETF in May.
Over the past few weeks, the price of Ethereum has underperformed the price of Bitcoin as the market's hope on the SEC's approval of ETH spot ETFs has diminished. The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF demonstrated to the market a significant capital inflow. If the SEC approves ETH spot ETFs in May, ETH prices may see a similar price action.
Macro at a glance
Last Thursday (24-03-28)
UK GDP fell 0.3% in Q4 2023, following a 0.1% drop in Q3 2023. The data confirmed that the UK was in recession at the end of 2023.
US GDP increased by 3.4% in Q4 2023, following a strong 4.9% growth in Q3 2023. The strong US GDP growth reflects different economic conditions than the ones in the UK.
Initial jobless claims fell from 212k to 210k this week. The US labour market remains strong.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a key indicator of economic activity in the Chicago region, fell further from 44.0 in February to 41.4 in March.
Last Friday (24-03-29)
The US PCE price index increased by 0.3% monthly in February, slowing from 0.4% in January. The Core PCE price index increased by 0.3% monthly, slowing from 0.5% in January. The annualised core PCE price index was 2.8%, slightly lower than the 2.9% reported in January.
On Monday (24-04-01)
The US ISM manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.3 in March, exceeding the forecasted 48.5 and the previous month's 47.8. The US ISM manufacturing price was also reported at 55.8, higher than the expected 53.3 and the previous month's 52.5.
On Tuesday (24-04-02)
Germany's CPI growth rate was expected to be 0.4% monthly in March, lower than the previously estimated 0.5% rate. The annualised CPI growth rate was expected to be 2.2%, down from last month's 2.5% rate.
US job openings increased from 8.748 million in January to 8.756 million in February.
On Wednesday (24-04-03)
The Eurozone CPI growth rate in March was projected to be 2.4% annually, while the core CPI growth rate was projected to be 2.9%. Both projections were slightly lower than the previous forecast.
In March, the US ADP nonfarm employment change was 184k, up from the estimated 148k.
The ISM non-manufacturing PMI reading was 51.4, lower than the forecasted 52.8. The weaker-than-expected data boosted the US equity and crypto markets by indicating that less demand was expected, resulting in lower inflation pressures.
However, Fed Chairman Powell's remarks did not specify the timing or scale of potential rate cuts. Both the equities and crypto markets gave up most of the gains from the PMI readings.
Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.
This week, our desk noticed that trading volume increased significantly in Liquid Staking, while volume changes in other zones were minor.
Over the last seven days, the Liquid Staking Zone has experienced the greatest percentage increase in volume. Trading volume increased by 370.9%, owing to higher trade demand for Jito ($JTO).
The Monitoring zone saw a 9.1% increase in trading volume on Convert. Akropolis ($AKRO) and OAX ($OAX) saw the highest increase in trading demand among all tokens in the Monitoring zone.
The NFT zone also experienced a 6.7% volume increase. GMT ($GMT), STEPN's governor token, has seen the most significant volume increase in this zone and contributed the most to volume growth.
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