Monday
January steel PMI shows: Seasonal factors have emerged, and the steel industry is running weakly.
According to the PMI of the steel industry released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI for January 2025 is 43.3%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the steel industry continues to operate weakly. Changes in sub-indices show that due to seasonal factors, demand in the steel market has further contracted, steel production continues to slow, raw material prices remain downward, and steel prices have slightly fluctuated downward. It is expected that in February, demand in the steel market will operate weakly. In early February, due to the Spring Festival, a large number of construction projects will be suspended for a period of time, and after the holiday, some projects in southern regions will gradually resume work, but the overall construction scale and progress in February are unlikely to return to normal levels. In addition, the resumption of work in northern regions will be slower due to weather conditions, leading to overall low demand for construction steel.
The U.S. White House: Colombia accepts the repatriation of illegal immigrants, and tariffs and sanctions against the country are temporarily suspended.
The U.S. White House: Colombia has agreed to all conditions set by President Trump, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal immigrants repatriated from the U.S. The comprehensive draft of tariffs and sanctions under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act against Colombia will be temporarily withheld and not signed.
Yu Weining, a statistician from the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics: The profits of industrial enterprises turned from decline to increase this month, and the decline in the fourth quarter has significantly narrowed.
In 2024, the operating income of large-scale industrial enterprises will continue to grow, achieving a total profit of over 7.4 trillion yuan, with profits from new industrial momentum represented by high-tech manufacturing growing rapidly. The profits of industrial enterprises turned from decline to increase this month, and the decline in the fourth quarter has significantly narrowed. In December 2024, the profits of national large-scale industrial enterprises turned from a year-on-year decline of 7.3% in November to an increase of 11.0%; operating revenue increased by 4.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.7 percentage points compared to November. After a package of incremental policies was timely introduced, profits of industrial enterprises steadily recovered in the fourth quarter, with the decline narrowing significantly by 12.7 percentage points compared to the third quarter. Looking at the whole year, in 2024, the operating income of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 2.1% compared to the previous year, achieving a total profit of 743.105 billion yuan, a decline of 3.3% compared to the previous year. (National Bureau of Statistics)
Tuesday
In 2025, state-owned central enterprises will increase investment in three major areas.
According to reporters from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, in 2025, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will continue to promote central enterprises to take the lead, actively engage, and adhere to the dual emphasis on "expansion" and "effectiveness," increasing investment in three major areas: industrial renewal, technological innovation, and equipment upgrades. Specifically, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will push central enterprises to further strengthen their efforts in industrial renewal, promote the implementation of a plan to multiply investments in strategic emerging industries, continuously plan in new industries and new tracks, concentrate resources to increase investment, accelerate cultivation, and enhance collaboration; in technological innovation, strengthen efforts by focusing on technological attributes, technological value, and emerging fields, promoting the implementation of key projects to strengthen and supplement the chain; in equipment upgrades, adhere to demonstration-driven and first-mover advancement, leading the entire industry to form scale effects and drive overall social investment growth. (Xinhua News Agency)
The U.S. White House has ordered a suspension of federal grants and loan disbursements.
On January 27 local time, according to the (Washington Post), the U.S. White House budget office ordered a suspension of all federal government grant and loan disbursements, causing chaos in Washington. Reports indicate that the memorandum was signed by Matthew J. Vaeth, acting director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, requiring federal agencies to "temporarily suspend all activities related to federal financial assistance" and conduct a "comprehensive analysis" of their grant and loan projects to ensure compliance with U.S. President Trump's executive orders. These executive orders include measures to ban federal diversity, equity, and inclusion programs and to limit clean energy spending.
StoneX has downgraded its forecast for Brazil's cotton production due to a decrease in planting area in the main producing state.
According to foreign media reports, StoneX has lowered its forecast for Brazil's cotton production for the 2024/25 season from 3.83 million tons in December to 3.79 million tons. The main reason for the downgrade is the downward revision of the planting area in the main producing state of Mato Grosso. It is predicted that the cotton planting area in this state will be 1.53 million hectares, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 1.55 million hectares, but still about 5.1% higher than last year. StoneX analyst Raphael Bulascoschi assessed in a report: "We noticed delays in soybean harvesting in Mato Grosso. Therefore, cotton planting in this state is expected to be delayed, increasing crop risks and hindering some growers from continuing to expand their planting area this year." If the forecast is accurate, this year's cotton production of 3.79 million tons will be a 4.6% increase over the 2023/24 season.
Wednesday
The Defense Minister of Israel stated that the Israeli military will maintain its presence in the Golan Heights indefinitely.
On January 28 local time, Israeli Defense Minister Katz visited a military camp at the top of the Golan Heights controlled by Israel. Katz told Israeli soldiers that they would maintain their presence on the Golan Heights and in the Syrian-Israeli military buffer zone indefinitely to ensure the safety of residents in northern Israel. Katz said, "We will not allow hostile armed forces to exist in the Syrian southern military buffer zone, and we will attack any threat."
The leader of Hezbollah stated that they do not accept an extension of the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel.
According to the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, the ceasefire agreement that took effect on November 27 of last year and was valid for 60 days expired on the 26th of this month. The U.S. White House announced on that day that the deadline for this agreement would be extended from that day to February 18. In response, the leader of Hezbollah stated on January 27 local time that Hezbollah would not accept an extension of the agreement's duration. Hezbollah leader Qasim stated that the 60-day period has expired, and Israel must complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah will not accept any excuse to extend the deadline. (CCTV News)
Thursday
The initial annualized real GDP growth rate for the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 2.3%, with an expected growth of 2.6%.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the initial annualized real GDP growth rate of the U.S. rose by 2.3%, with an expected growth of 2.6%, and the final value for the third quarter of 2024 rose by 3.1%. The initial annualized core PCE price index for the fourth quarter of 2024 rose by 2.5%, with an expected growth of 2.5%, and the final value for the third quarter of 2024 rose by 2.2%. The initial annualized personal consumer expenditure in the fourth quarter of 2024 rose by 4.2%, with an expected growth of 3.2%, and the final value for the third quarter of 2024 rose by 3.7%.
In January, the newly built commercial housing area signed online in Guangzhou was 1.0151 million m2, a year-on-year increase of 37%.
In January, the real estate market in Guangzhou effectively continued the positive trend of stabilizing since the fourth quarter of last year: In January (the statistical period is from the 26th of the previous month to the 25th of the current month), the newly built commercial housing area signed online in the city was 1.0151 million m2, a year-on-year increase of 37%, which is 12 percentage points higher than the average monthly level in 2024.
Anec: Last week (January 19-25), Brazil exported 328,746 tons of soybeans.
Data from the Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) shows that last week (January 19-25), Brazil exported 328,746 tons of soybeans, 263,680 tons of soybean meal, and 912,072 tons of corn. This week (January 26-February 1), planned exports include 915,999 tons of soybeans, 860,110 tons of soybean meal, and 687,596 tons of corn.
Williams: The amount of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports is 1.3292 million tons, down from 1.3581 million tons the previous week.
Data released by Brazil's shipping agency Williams shows that the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports is 37, up from 34 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting for shipment at the ports is 1.3292 million tons, down from 1.3581 million tons the previous week. Among the total amount of sugar waiting for export that week, high-grade raw sugar (VHP) accounted for 1.0982 million tons.
Friday
Institutions: Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1-31 decreased by 12.3%-20.14% compared to the same month last year.
According to the shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1-31 was 1,192,328 tons, a decrease of 12.3% compared to 1,359,504 tons in the same month last year.
According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1-31 was 1,103,496 tons, a decrease of 20.14% compared to 1,381,837 tons in the same month last year.
The estimated arrival of cotton in India is 146,500 bales (each bale is 170 kg) or 24,905 tons.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) announced that as of January 30, 2025, the estimated arrival of cotton in India is 146,500 bales (each bale is 170 kg), or 24,905 tons. For the 2024/25 season (from October to September of the following year), the cumulative arrival of cotton in India is 17,738,900 bales, or 3,015,613 tons.
In December 2024, it is expected that U.S. soybean processing will increase to 6.529 million short tons or a record high of 217.6 million bushels.
In December 2024, it is expected that U.S. soybean processing will increase to 6.529 million short tons or a record high of 217.6 million bushels. The estimated range for soybean processing in December 2024 is between 214-223 million bushels, with a median estimate of 217.1 million bushels. As of December 31, the estimated soybean oil inventory in the U.S. is 1.734 billion pounds, with an estimated range between 1.680-1.775 billion pounds, and a median estimate of 1.738 billion pounds.
Goldman Sachs raised its average price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2025 and 2026.
Goldman Sachs: Raised the average price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2025 and 2026 to $78 and $73, respectively (previously $76 and $71). Downgraded the fair value assessment for Brent crude oil over the next 36 months to $68/barrel (previously $70). If Iran's sanctioned supply continues to decrease by 1 million barrels per day, and Russia temporarily reduces by 1 million barrels per day, Brent crude oil prices could rise to $93/barrel. If a 10% universal tariff is implemented, Brent crude oil prices may fall to the low $60 range by 2026.
As of January 20, 2025, the rubber (RSS) inventory in designated warehouses was 3,075 tons.
According to the Osaka Exchange (OSE) website, as of January 20, 2025, the rubber (RSS) inventory in designated warehouses was 3,075 tons, an increase of 199 tons compared to 2,876 tons as of January 10.
BAGE: As of January 29, the proportion of soybean crop conditions rated as good is 20%.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) stated that as of January 29, the proportion of soybean crop conditions rated as good is 20% (last week's value was 22%, and last year's value was 29%), with 52% rated as normal (last week's value was 50%, and last year's value was 49%), and 28% rated as poor (last week's value was 28%, and last year's value was 22%). The proportion of beneficial to suitable soil moisture is 58% (last week's value was 55%, and last year's value was 60%), while the proportion of short to extremely short soil moisture is 42% (last week's value was 45%, and last year's value was 40%).
Saturday
The White House: Starting February 1, a 25% tariff will be imposed on products from Mexico and Canada.
On January 31 local time, U.S. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt confirmed at a briefing that a 25% tariff would be imposed on products from Mexico and Canada starting February 1. On January 30 local time, U.S. President Trump stated that he plans to fulfill his promise to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada on February 1.
Trump's tariff news shook the market, causing the dollar index to soar and gold to plummet.
White House Press Secretary Levitt confirmed at a press conference that the Trump administration will impose a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada starting February 1, denying Reuters' claim that the tariffs on Mexico and Canada would take effect on March 1. Following the announcement, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) rebounded by as much as 69 points from its daily low, reaching 108.48, and the USD/CAD erased prior losses and turned positive within the day. Spot gold fell to $2,795.34 per ounce at one point. Bitcoin dropped below $103,000 per coin, falling 1.67% during the day. U.S. crude and Brent crude both narrowed their daily declines, nearing flat, reported at $72.89 per barrel and $77.02 per barrel, respectively.
Wu Qing: Enrich market stabilization policy tools and做好增量政策储备.
Wu Qing stated that we must adhere to stability as the priority and strive to form and consolidate a positive trend of market stabilization. We must firmly implement the important requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference regarding stabilizing the stock market, strengthen monitoring and regulation of internal and external, on-market and off-market, spot and futures interactions, enhance the foresight, initiative, and effectiveness of work. Together with the People's Bank of China and other relevant parties, we will better leverage the effectiveness of the two structural monetary policy tools, enrich market stabilization policy tools, and做好增量政策储备. We will ensure effective risk prevention in the bond market and implement policies and measures for financial support to local governments in debt reduction, firmly preventing the overlap and resonance of risks. We will strengthen proactive communication with the market, improve the spokesperson system and other institutional mechanisms, and respond promptly to market concerns. We will improve the responsibility system for public opinion guidance and enforce the reputation management responsibilities of listed companies and industry organizations. We will rectify illegal stock recommendation practices and firmly crack down on violations that mislead investors and infringe upon their property safety.
Wu Qing: Study and formulate better specialized policy arrangements to support the development of new productive forces.
The third issue of the (Seeking Truth) magazine published on February 1, 2025, features an article by Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, titled (Striving to Create a New Situation for High-Quality Development of the Capital Market). Wu Qing stated that we must urgently implement the overall implementation plan for further comprehensive deepening of capital market reform, promoting the implementation of one mature scheme and one launched scheme. On the investment side, we will work with relevant parties to ensure the implementation of (the plan to promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market) and promote the establishment of a long-cycle assessment mechanism for various types of medium and long-term funds, increase the scale and proportion of investment in A-shares, and accelerate the establishment of a policy system that supports "long money long investment." We will deepen the reform of public funds, promote the establishment of a binding assessment and incentive constraint mechanism with investors' interests, and continue to vigorously develop equity public funds to support the high-quality development of index investment. On the financing side, we will study and formulate better specialized policy arrangements to support the development of new productive forces. At the same time, we will adhere to promoting reform through openness, optimize the overseas listing filing system, steadily expand cross-border connectivity in the capital market, and optimize the qualified foreign investor system.
Trump: Tariffs will be imposed on goods such as chips, oil, natural gas, and steel.
According to foreign media reports, U.S. President Trump stated on Friday that the U.S. will impose tariffs on imported goods such as computer chips, drugs, steel, aluminum, copper, oil, and natural gas as early as mid-February. Trump added that he also wants to impose tariffs on the EU but did not specify the timing or rates. The tariffs announced for these industries and the EU seem to be separate from the 25% tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico. The tariffs proposed by Trump will be added to the existing tariffs on these products. White House Press Secretary Levitt previously confirmed that the Trump administration will impose a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada starting February 1.
Sunday
The U.S. announced a 10% tariff on Chinese goods.
U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on the 1st to impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from China. This latest trade protection measure has faced widespread opposition in the international community and within the U.S. The White House stated that a 10% tariff will be imposed on all goods imported from China on top of the existing tariffs. Trump stated that this aligns with the "protectionist measures" he supports. A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs previously stated that China has repeatedly expressed its position, always believing that there are no winners in a trade war or tariff war. China will firmly safeguard its national interests. A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce also stated that China's position on tariffs has been consistent. Tariff measures are detrimental to both China and the U.S., as well as to the entire world. (Xinhua News Agency)
The President of Mexico announced that tariffs will be imposed on the United States.
Mexican President Sainbaum: I have instructed the economic minister to implement retaliatory tariff plans against the United States.
Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau: A 25% tariff will be imposed on U.S. goods worth 155 billion Canadian dollars.
Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau stated at a press conference that Canada will impose a 25% tariff on U.S. goods worth 155 billion Canadian dollars, including an immediate tariff on goods worth 30 billion Canadian dollars starting Tuesday, with further tariffs on U.S. products worth 125 billion Canadian dollars to be implemented within 21 days.
The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs answered questions from reporters regarding the U.S. announcement of a 10% tariff on products imported from China.
The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs answered reporters' questions regarding the U.S. announcement of a 10% tariff on products imported from China. The U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on products imported from China under the pretext of the fentanyl issue, to which China expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition, stating it would take necessary countermeasures to firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. The U.S. should objectively and rationally view and handle its own fentanyl issue instead of threatening other countries with tariffs. The imposition of tariffs is unconstructive and will inevitably affect and harm future cooperation between the two sides on drug control issues. China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous actions and maintain the hard-won good situation of China-U.S. drug control cooperation, promoting stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs website)
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce commented on the U.S. announcement of a 10% tariff on products imported from China.
At around 8 p.m. Eastern Time on February 1, the White House released a fact sheet announcing a 10% tariff on products imported from China due to issues such as fentanyl. China is strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposes this. The unilateral imposition of tariffs by the U.S. seriously violates WTO rules, which is not only unhelpful in solving its own problems but also damages normal economic and trade cooperation between China and the U.S. In response to the U.S.'s erroneous actions, China will file a lawsuit with the WTO and take corresponding countermeasures to firmly safeguard its own rights and interests. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Article reposted from: Jin10 Data
