Ethereum (ETH) is at a crucial moment as the price has just broken out of the bullish falling wedge pattern. To better understand the potential 20% increase mentioned in the analysis, we will take a closer look from the perspective of technical analysis, on-chain data, and market sentiment.
1. Technical analysis: Bearish wedge pattern and important levels
Bullish falling wedge pattern
This pattern is a bullish pattern, as the price moves down within a narrow channel before breaking upward. Ethereum has maintained this pattern since November 2024, and the recent breakout indicates that the bullish trend may continue.
• Main resistance level: $3,400
• Next price target: $4,100 (+20%)
• Important support level: $3,305
If ETH closes the daily candle above $3,400 with strong trading volume, this could confirm a larger bullish move.
2. Technical indicators support the upward trend
• RSI (Relative Strength Index) = 55
• This is a neutral level but with an upward trend, indicating that ETH still has room to continue rising before being overbought (RSI > 70).
• Trading volume increased by 10% in 24h
• This is a good signal, indicating increasing investor interest, supporting the bullish trend.
3. On-Chain analysis: Long-term investors are selling, but buyers are dominant
Data from CoinGlass shows:
• Exchange inflow = $103 million ETH
• This could be a sign of selling pressure as investors transfer ETH to exchanges to take profits.
• Buyers are stronger than sellers
• Long positions are dominating with a total value of $360 million at the level of $3,305.
• Short sellers have a total value of $190 million at the level of $3,370.
• This indicates that buying pressure is still controlling the market.
4. Market sentiment and influencing factors
• Market sentiment remains quite positive, despite selling pressure from some long-term investors.
• The cryptocurrency market in general is recovering, with Bitcoin (BTC) maintaining above the important support level. This may help ETH rise in price due to the overall positive sentiment.
• If ETH continues to hold above $3,400, it may trigger further capital inflow, driving the upward momentum to $4,100.
Conclusion: ETH could rise 20%, but needs to break through $3,400 first
• If Ethereum closes the daily candle above $3,400, it is highly likely to reach $4,100 in the near future.
• Technical indicators and on-chain data show that buyers are in control, but selling pressure from long-term investors needs to be monitored.
• Investors should watch the $3,305 - $3,400 area to determine the next move. If ETH fails to hold above $3,305, there may be a correction before continuing to rise.
