Futures early peak - audio version
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Macro news
1. A reporter from Xinhua learned from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission that in 2025, the Commission will continue to promote central enterprises to take proactive actions, emphasizing both 'expansion' and 'effectiveness' in increasing investments in the three major areas of industrial renewal, technological innovation, and equipment upgrades.
2. According to the Washington Post, the White House budget office has ordered the suspension of all federal government funding and loan disbursements, causing chaos in Washington. These executive orders include the prohibition of federal diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, as well as restrictions on clean energy spending.
3. A reporter from Xinhua recently learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that in 2024, the value added of China's above-scale consumer goods industry is expected to grow by 4.5% year-on-year. Consumption growth in the home appliance sector is particularly prominent, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment in 2024 expected to increase by 12.3% year-on-year.
4. According to CCTV news, the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, which came into effect on November 27 last year and was set for 60 days, expired on the 26th of this month. The White House announced that the deadline for this agreement has been extended from that day to February 18. In response, the leader of Hezbollah stated on the 27th local time that Hezbollah will not accept the extension of the agreement.
5. According to data released by local statistics bureaus, the top ten cities by GDP in 2024 are: Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing. Among them, Shanghai becomes the first city in the country with an economic total of 5 trillion, with Chongqing surpassing Guangzhou to reclaim the fourth place nationwide, and Chengdu's advantage over Hangzhou increasing, while Nanjing faces increased pressure to maintain its top ten position.
6. The U.S. Senate confirmed Bessent as Secretary of the Treasury. Bessent is pushing for new universal tariffs on U.S. imports, starting at 2.5% and increasing by 2.5% each month. Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on semiconductors, metals, and pharmaceuticals, stating he hopes to impose tariffs significantly higher than 2.5%.
7. Canada’s Foreign Minister stated that she will discuss tariff issues with the U.S. Secretary of State. The new White House Press Secretary stated that the date for the U.S. to begin imposing tariffs on imported goods from Canada and Mexico remains set for February 1.
8. Media reports stated that Israel and Hamas have begun negotiations for the second phase of a ceasefire. The Israeli Defense Minister stated that the military will maintain its presence on Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights 'indefinitely'.
Global futures market fluctuations
1. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.21% to $2,771.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 1.73% to $30.94 per ounce.
2. International oil prices have risen across the board, with U.S. oil March contracts up 1.11% to $73.98 per barrel. Brent oil March contracts rose 0.51% to $76.57 per barrel.
3. London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.87% to $9,015.5 per ton, LME zinc futures down 2.66% to $2,763.5 per ton, LME nickel futures up 0.61% to $15,655 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.13% to $2,573 per ton, LME tin up 0.02% to $29,650 per ton, and LME lead down 0.74% to $1,934.5 per ton.
4. The main agricultural futures contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed higher, with soybean futures up 0.07% to 1,045.75 cents per bushel; corn futures rose 0.67% to 485.25 cents per bushel, and wheat futures increased by 1.77% to 545 cents per bushel.
Black series hot news
1. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce's industrial product export data, a total of 24,387,300 tons of iron ore were exported, compared to 29,264,400 tons in January last year. The average daily shipment volume is 1,434,500 tons per day, an increase of 7.84% compared to 1,330,200 tons per day in January last year.
2. In various places across the country, the real estate market continues the positive trend of stabilization since the fourth quarter of last year, with January seeing a 'good start' in transactions. In January of this year, the transaction area of new commercial residential properties in 20 key cities nationwide increased by 33% year-on-year, with a noticeable driving effect from first-tier cities, maintaining high transaction volume and market sentiment. Experts believe that after several rounds of adjustment, housing prices have stabilized, and the real estate market is expected to recover in 2025, with a small spring in first-tier cities worth looking forward to.
3. Recently, positive signals have frequently appeared in the real estate market. The transaction volume in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai has significantly increased as the Spring Festival approaches, keeping the overall market heated. At the same time, several provincial and municipal government departments held meetings to deploy key tasks for 2025. Against the backdrop of continued policy support, the advancement of market stabilization, and the need to reinforce risk mitigation, the related deployments of real estate work have become a focus of attention, releasing many positive signals.
Agricultural product hot news
1. The Thai Ministry of Commerce stated on Tuesday that Thailand's rice export volume is expected to decrease by about 24% in 2025, to 7.5 million tons. The Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade, Arada Fuangtong, stated at a media conference that the downward revision is due to India's resumption of exports and an increase in production in other rice-producing countries.
2. According to foreign media reports, the Agricultural Economic Research Institute of Mato Grosso (IMEA) announced that the soybean crushing profits in Mato Grosso from January 20-24 were 752.65 reais per ton, down from 754.43 reais per ton the previous week. During that week, the soybean meal price in the state was 1,854.67 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 6,174.21 reais per ton.
3. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce's agricultural export data, a total of 684,100 tons of soybeans have been exported, compared to 2,854,900 tons in January last year. The average daily shipment volume is 40,200 tons per day, a decrease of 68.99% compared to 129,800 tons per day in January last year. A total of 2,695,300 tons of corn have been exported, compared to 4,876,300 tons in January last year. The average daily shipment volume is 158,500 tons per day, a decrease of 28.47% compared to 221,600 tons per day in January last year.
4. StoneX has revised its forecast for Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/2025 season down from 3.83 million tons in December to 3.79 million tons. According to the company, the downward revision is mainly due to a reduction in the planting area in the major producing state of Mato Grosso.
5. According to Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture's National Supply Company (CONAB), as of January 26, Brazil's soybean harvest rate is 3.2%, up from 1.2% last week and down from 8.6% in the same period last year. Brazil's soybean planting rate is 99.2%, up from 98.9% last week and down from 99.4% in the same period last year.
6. According to Wind data, as of the week ending January 28, soybean oil port stocks recorded 853,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared to 844,000 tons in the week ending January 21.
Energy and chemical hot news
1. Executives from Indian oil companies stated that the latest U.S. sanctions have affected Russian oil supplies. If there is a reasonable discount, we will purchase Russian oil. The discount for Russian oil has dropped to about $2 per barrel (based on the delivery benchmark).
2. According to foreign media reports, after facing new sanctions, Russian refineries are processing more crude oil to increase fuel exports. The latest sanctions target Surgutneftgas and Gazprom Neft, which together account for 25% of Russia's oil exports. In 2024, the average export volume of the two companies is 970,000 barrels per day.
3. Brazil's state-owned energy company Petrobras stated in a press release that its oil production last year was 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, but it did not provide quarterly data. The company is the largest oil producer in Latin America. Petrobras added that its oil production for 2024 is expected to reach 2.2 million barrels per day.
4. According to foreign media reports, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for U.S. natural gas prices in 2025 to $3.60 per million British thermal units, up from a previous forecast of $3.00. Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for 2026 NYMEX natural gas prices to $4.15 per million British thermal units, up from a previous forecast of $4.00.
5. The National Energy Administration held a meeting of the 2025 Legal Construction Leadership Group, requiring substantial progress in revising the Energy Law, promoting supporting regulations and policy documents for the Energy Law in batches; encouraging exploration and innovation, implementing important systems of the Energy Law, strengthening law enforcement supervision, and enhancing regulatory effectiveness.
Metal hot news
1. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce's industrial product export data, a total of 61,700 tons of copper ore and copper concentrate have been exported, compared to 134,500 tons in January last year. The average daily shipment volume is 3,600 tons per day, a decrease of 40.64% compared to 6,100 tons per day in January last year; a total of 106,000 tons of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate have been exported, compared to 430,700 tons in January last year. The average daily shipment volume is 6,200 tons per day, a decrease of 68.15% compared to 19,600 tons per day in January last year.
2. Surveys of analysts and traders show that the median price forecast for gold in 2025 is $2,756 per ounce, higher than the previously estimated value of $2,674 three months ago. The survey shows that analysts have lowered their price forecasts for platinum and palladium in 2025, due to difficulties in significantly improving demand prospects, but expect the average prices of these two metals to rise slightly in 2026.
Overview of important futures data and events recently
1. On January 30 at 03:00, the Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. At 03:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) stated that while waiting for clarity on Trump's policies, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the 'foreseeable future' and may even raise rates. Recent surveys show that consumer inflation expectations (often a leading indicator) have risen. 'From an inflation perspective, we have not yet emerged from the predicament.'
2. On January 31 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce the month-on-month and year-on-year core PCE price index for December. Previous data showed that the core PCE price index for November was 0.1%, with an expectation of 0.2%. The November core PCE price index month-on-month reached a new low since May this year.
3. The export data for Malaysian palm oil from January 1-31, reported by ITS/AmSpec/SGS, is pending on January 31.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data