Compared to the turbulent January, February seems very "quiet" in terms of major financial events. However, from a historical perspective, Bitcoin has performed very well, with most of the increases. So in February of this year, will the market make a fortune in silence in this "quiet" environment?
In January, Bitcoin once again broke through its all-time high, but altcoins were half dead. Will there be an explosion of altcoins in February? In February, more than 20 countries and regions including China, Japan, and South Korea will enter the Spring Festival holiday. As one of the most important crypto forces in the world, will this cause drastic fluctuations in the market?
The latest edition of the cryptocurrency financial calendar has just been released, capturing major events inside and outside the circle, with a focus on key interpretations of important events, analyzing these impending major events and their underlying logic, helping you to cut through the fog and find your wealth code.
How did Bitcoin perform in historical Februarys?
Before delving into the article, let's recap: How did Bitcoin perform in historical Februarys, which serve as a barometer for the cryptocurrency market? The following are data statistics from third-party websites such as tradingview:
From the chart above, it can be seen that historically, February has been predominantly an upward month for Bitcoin, with a rise and fall ratio of 10:2 over the past 12 years, indicating a significant advantage for upward movement.
Review major events that directly impact the rise and fall of the entire cryptocurrency market
February 3, Oklahoma, USA reviews the Bitcoin Freedom Act
Oklahoma legislators proposed the Bitcoin Freedom Act, which will be reviewed during the 60th legislative session starting on February 3. The bill will allow employees in Oklahoma to choose to receive their salaries in Bitcoin and allow vendors to accept Bitcoin payments.
Meanwhile, the Cannes city government will provide local merchants with training on cryptocurrency payment technology, legal, accounting, and tax issues on February 4 at the Palais des Festivals, and plans to release a 'crypto-friendly' merchant map.
It can be said that with Trump's inauguration and the explosive popularity of his personal MEME coin TRUMP, along with the basic confirmation of the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, cryptocurrencies represented by Bitcoin have truly entered the mainstream view; recently, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis officially confirmed her position as chair of the Digital Assets Subcommittee of the Senate Committee. Cynthia Lummis proposed the (U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act) (BITCOIN Act of 2024) back in July 2024, which proposes purchasing 200,000 Bitcoins annually, reaching 1 million over five years.
This time, it is not a small country like El Salvador with only 6 million people declaring Bitcoin as legal tender, but the world's only superpower, the United States with a population of over 300 million, that is starting to implement a Bitcoin strategic reserve plan. The demonstration effect and influence on other countries in the world is unprecedented, and Bitcoin will truly embark on the path of 'gold' reserves.
However, some investors are worried that this is merely a celebration for Bitcoin, with little correlation to altcoins. Regardless, as the stabilizing force of the cryptocurrency market, as long as Bitcoin continues to rise, the market will present endless opportunities.
February 6, Bank of England interest rate decision
Currently, the Bank of England's interest rate is 4.75%, with mainstream opinion considering it excessively tight; the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may be forced to adopt a faster rate cut pace to avoid long-term economic stagnation. A 25 basis point rate cut is the mainstream expectation for this meeting.
Subsequent meetings will also require continued rate cuts, with the terminal rate expected to drop to 3.25% by mid-2026, as the UK economy is currently quite weak and inflationary pressures have also eased.
February 7, U.S. January non-farm data released
Last month, the U.S. non-farm employment figures for December were reported at 256,000, far exceeding the prior consensus expectation of 160,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.2%, casting a shadow over potential rate cuts in 2025.
However, after the release of the non-farm data, the Federal Reserve will not hold another meeting until March 18, during which another non-farm data release will occur, so if the data does not show another anomaly, its impact on the market should be minimal, mostly resulting in short-term spikes.
February 12, U.S. January CPI released
On the 15th of last month, the U.S. December seasonally adjusted CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations of 2.9%, while the previous value was a 2.7% increase. The data is not promising, yet the market surged, mainly due to the positive news from Trump's inauguration; however, the timing of this CPI data release is similar to this month's non-farm data release, far from the Fed's March meeting, making it challenging to have a significant impact on the market unless the data deviates significantly.
February 18, U.S. December net foreign investment in long-term securities
Net foreign investment in long-term securities refers to the total amount of U.S. long-term securities (such as government bonds, corporate bonds, and stocks) purchased by foreign investors, minus the amount they sold. Net foreign investment in long-term securities reflects international capital inflow into the United States, indicating strong confidence from foreign investors in the U.S. economy and financial markets. Foreign investors typically need to purchase long-term securities priced in dollars, increasing global demand for the dollar and further strengthening its dominant position.
For the cryptocurrency market, the inflow of foreign capital may divert funds and strengthen the dollar's position, which could be detrimental to high-risk assets in the short term; however, the current net foreign buying volume is showing a downward trend, indicating an increase in investors' risk appetite. When investors reduce demand for low-risk long-term securities, funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market, especially when cryptocurrencies are seen as a hedge against traditional financial assets (for example, Bitcoin being viewed as 'digital gold'), which would enhance liquidity in the cryptocurrency market and drive prices up.
Other financial events
February 3, Eurozone CPI data released;
February 5, small non-farm data - U.S. January ADP employment figures released;
February 10, Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index;
February 13, U.S. PPI
February 18, U.S. February New York Fed Manufacturing Index
February 20, U.S. February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
February 25, Turkey's new cryptocurrency regulations take effect
February 25, FTX's first repayment day, which may last until March 4
Conclusion
In the second half of January, positive news bombarded the market: Trump took office as U.S. President and established a cryptocurrency working group to explore the creation of a national digital asset reserve; Cynthia Lummis announced as chair of the Senate Banking Digital Assets Subcommittee; U.S. Bitcoin reserves were basically confirmed; Trump issued the first crypto executive order...
Why are there so many positive news items, yet Bitcoin does not rise? As previously mentioned, the primary criterion for judging the quality of news is whether it can bring real liquidity to the market.
Currently, these positive factors are long-term benefits, but in the short term, it's difficult to expect the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and spot ETFs to bring substantial liquidity to the market. For instance, the matter of Bitcoin reserves is a long process from legislation and funding to implementation, requiring patience.
Finally, the information in this article does not constitute investment advice. Please thoroughly review and master more information, comprehensively assess the market situation, and make your own decisions.
