The Bitcoin bull and bear cycle lasts 4 years, which is 48 months! When you buy altcoins, you are betting that in those 48 months there will be 1 month or at most 3 months where they outperform Bitcoin!

The minimum probability is 1/48=0.0208333, and the maximum probability is 3/48=0.0625, so the probability of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin is only 2% to 6%! Do you understand this winning rate?