After experiencing last night's small spike, we have to return to the sentiment we discussed over the weekend: if it can't stabilize, it could go to the 91k-90k range. However, last night it directly broke 90k and quickly recovered above 94k. The CPI data has not yet been released, so the sentiment remains unstable. Currently, it is fluctuating in the 90k-96k range; a positive news could stabilize the sentiment for Bitcoin and even push it higher, but Ethereum and altcoins are not responding as quickly and can only wait for the market to stabilize.
Will the sentiment in the coming period become low again or even reach a lower point?
Firstly, we need to analyze the market's game and causality. The decline is because the Fed's interest rate cuts initially planned for January have been postponed to the 3-6 months period. Additionally, the US economy is relatively strong, and the US dollar index keeps rising, which is actually a bad signal for the cryptocurrency market. When the dollar index rises, the US is unlikely to accelerate interest rate cuts.
On the positive side, the Washington Post reported a favorable development, expecting to issue an executive order related to cryptocurrency on the first day in office.
From Trump's style, it can be seen that his promotion of the development of the cryptocurrency industry won't be slow; whether it's Bitcoin's strategic reserves or cryptocurrency regulatory policies, they will be implemented quickly, including Ethereum's staking ETF.
Due to the CPI continuing to drive risk aversion, it affected sentiment on Monday. However, the CPI can be referenced against last week's non-farm payroll data. It similarly started to decline two or three days in advance, and after the announcement, there was a small spike followed by a quick recovery. In simple terms, the impact of CPI has likely been largely digested in advance.
If the CPI data looks bad and leads to risk aversion, it wouldn't be surprising to see a range of 92k-90k. As long as this range isn't broken, it's a decent position to place orders for altcoins. If acquired, they should be held until after the Spring Festival. This period anticipates Trump's inauguration, and you wouldn't want to miss out when he makes an announcement. Additionally, Bitfinex is increasing its long positions on ETHBTC. Every time Bitfinex increases its long positions on ETHBTC, if there is a rally, the target for Ethereum can be set at 3500-3700!
I must say that this round of the bull market is truly frustrating, especially for altcoin holders. Recently, many coins have returned to historical lows, with some even hitting new lows. If you say this is a bull market, altcoin holders might find it hard to believe, as their positions are suffering daily losses. However, as of now, various top indicators and peak indicators do not align, so saying the bull market has peaked or is nonexistent is unreasonable. It's just that this round of the bull market has reached this point, relying on altcoins to achieve significant returns can only be said for a very few varieties!
Most altcoins follow a rollercoaster pattern; the market for altcoins may only belong to a small number of coins. To find those with high cost-performance ratios that are suitable, one not only needs insight but also a bit of luck.
Many people fail to make money and blame the poor overall environment or say their purchased coins don't rise, feeling that 'there's no altcoin season.' However, the so-called altcoin season has never meant that all altcoins surge together!
The number of altcoins is increasing, and their market capitalization is rising, meaning that only a very small number of coins are destined to rise.
In the future, there may be fewer than 100 altcoins that can keep up with Bitcoin's gains. Whether one can seize the opportunity depends not only on ability but also on luck. Opportunities are always present, but they are harder to grasp now, requiring more judgment and effort.
Now the correlation between cryptocurrency and US macroeconomic policies is significant, so selecting projects wisely is still necessary. Look at which sectors are being speculated upon as liquidity flows in. Examine the main altcoins selected by Coinbase, Trump, Grayscale, and BlackRock, which are basically major public chains and the leaders of other sectors.
The market always welcomes hope amidst despair! Place buy orders at lows and patiently hold positions for a rebound! If a significant rebound occurs before the year ends, remember to secure some positions to ensure you have capital available for bottom fishing later on. Be cautious!
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is basically following the US stock market. For cryptocurrency to rise sustainably, the US stock market must also reverse its downward trend. There are some expectations in the near term:
1. A new round of US earnings season has begun, and the probability of exceeding expectations is still high. Strong corporate earnings can alleviate market panic.
2. The potential for AI to reduce costs and increase efficiency cannot be ignored, as it not only improves corporate profitability but also makes inflation less concerning. So, even if the market looks fraught with risk, if it's just these immediate concerns, they can be resolved and aren't worth excessive worry.
The S&P US stocks have completely filled the gap below, and if a favorable CPI leads to an initial rebound, it is reasonable.
This is how the market operates: during panic, liquidity exits, causing great fear, dropping to a level that terrifies you, but during FOMO, liquidity floods in, making you doubt your existence as prices soar.
Finally, I want to remind everyone not to be influenced by external factors. Stick to your own views and manage the market you understand well.