Compilation: Vernacular Blockchain
In 2025, the future of Bitcoin is full of expectations, and market giants are looking towards Trump’s return, hoping this event can become an important catalyst for growth in the entire cryptocurrency market.
1. Bitcoin Breaks Historical High After Trump Wins Presidential Election on November 5, 2024, Bitcoin first breaks the milestone of $100,000. As Trump officially takes office on January 20, 2025, the heat in the Bitcoin market is pushed towards higher expectations.
Market confidence sees exponential growth due to Trump's commitment to regulatory relaxation and a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan. According to FX Street, the cryptocurrency adoption rate among 18 to 25-year-olds surged by 683% after the presidential election, and Bitcoin's price cap became the focal point of market discussions.
2. The Future of Bitcoin: How Will Trump's Second Term Impact the Market? Can Trump's policies propel Bitcoin to unprecedented new highs? Will the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve become a watershed moment in Bitcoin's development history? Let’s delve into the potential impacts. 1) Establishing a Bitcoin Reserve In last year's campaign, Trump promised that all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government and future purchases would be incorporated into a 'National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.' He likened this plan to the U.S. oil reserve, emphasizing the necessity for swift action to accumulate large reserves before competing countries like China.
Trump's plan is not a global first; as early as 2021, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as a reserve asset and has since accumulated 6,150 Bitcoins, worth approximately $600 million at current prices.
Although the specific details of Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan remain unclear and its actual implementation is uncertain, there are indications that this plan may refer to the 'BITCOIN Act' (Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide) proposed by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis.
According to Maxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom24, 'Based on the so-called BITCOIN Act, the U.S. must accumulate 1 million Bitcoins over the next 20 years, which is about 5% of the total supply. Limited Bitcoin supply is expected to drive up its price, and the U.S. accumulating Bitcoin now may help offset future growing debt issues.'
Since Bitcoin's total supply is capped at 21 million, this means that 5% of the supply equates to 1.05 million Bitcoins, which, at current valuations, is worth over $100 billion. 2) Supply-Demand Imbalance Will Drive Up Prices With huge demand for Bitcoin ETFs, this supply-demand imbalance may further push prices up. Manturov points out that under such circumstances, market predictions for Bitcoin prices range from $125,000 in 2025 to $2.9 million in 2050.
It remains uncertain whether Trump's policies can materialize, but if this plan is implemented, the U.S. could not only become a leader in Bitcoin reserves but also have a profound impact on the future of the cryptocurrency market. A historic moment for Bitcoin may be on the horizon.
3. How High Can Bitcoin Go? The timing of Trump's return to the presidency is particularly crucial, as Bitcoin has just completed its fourth 'halving event' in 2024. This is a preset mechanism that occurs automatically approximately every four years, halving the Bitcoin rewards miners receive for their computational work.
1) The Halving Event and Market Surge The Bitcoin halving event automatically increases the scarcity of newly generated Bitcoins, and historically, this mechanism has typically triggered market rebounds and driven Bitcoin prices to new all-time highs.
Therefore, high expectations for Bitcoin's performance were already in place for the first half of 2025, and the optimism brought by Trump may further promote Bitcoin adoption. 2) Trump's Price Expectations According to sources, Trump privately hopes Bitcoin can reach $150,000 in the early stages of his presidency, viewing it as an alternative to the stock market.
Trump's son, Eric Trump, is even more aggressive; at the Bitcoin Conference MENA in December, he stated that Bitcoin's future price could reach $1 million.
Although the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and the volatility of global markets and geopolitics render such predictions uncertain, considering investor enthusiasm and the limits on Bitcoin's supply, reaching a target of $1 million in the future is not unimaginable.
However, in 2025, Bitcoin's price may be closer to Trump's proposed $150,000 prediction. But if market sentiment continues to grow, $150,000 may seem overly conservative.
4. Potential Issues Remain A key challenge facing the Trump administration is that the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's future development prospects still lingers.
John Prasad, senior investment expert at Mirabaud Group, points out that Bitcoin's future is both full of potential and fraught with uncertainty. He cites inflation pressures, liquidity issues, global regulatory outlooks, and the controversies surrounding its role as a store of value as reasons why Bitcoin's growth is not guaranteed.
Chris Lyman, director of the Washington bureau of (National) magazine, believes that the rise in cryptocurrency acceptance in the U.S. may lead to a surge in scams and 'pump and dump' schemes, which are precisely the targets that former SEC chairman Gary Gensler has worked to combat.
Although Gensler's departure has been welcomed by the crypto community, a loose regulatory framework could undermine the credibility of the entire cryptocurrency market.
Trump's promise to establish a Bitcoin reserve and implement crypto-friendly policies is driving market expectations for 2025 to become a landmark year for the cryptocurrency market. Many speculative investors have already taken for granted that a strong rise in Bitcoin prices is almost a certainty.
However, the speculative nature of the industry keeps uncertainty alive, and in an open regulatory environment, bad actors may further damage the credibility of cryptocurrencies.
Trump will undoubtedly play a significant role in the future of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, but how his second term will affect this market remains full of unknowns.