The strong performance of the November non-farm report makes people doubt whether the Fed will further cut interest rates in the first half of 2025. The December non-farm report provides further evidence to the Fed: 1. They made a policy mistake when they cut interest rates by 100 basis points at the end of last year; 2. They will become more cautious in implementing future interest rate cuts. The longer the Fed pauses, the more likely it is that the next move will be to start raising interest rates. The labor situation is important, but the most critical variable for the Fed and the market is inflation. Next week's CPI data will be more important.

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