Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On January 7, Zhao Changpeng tweeted that "Bitcoin at $100,000 is too boring." If $100,000 is a bit boring, then what about Bitcoin at $91,200? Perhaps all that is left is hesitation and uneasiness. The market once thought that the market would continue to rise, but the result was the exact opposite: Bitcoin has been falling since January 7, and finally fell to around $91,200.
Today, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped to 50, from 69 yesterday (the average last week was 74), and market sentiment plummeted to the level of October last year. The crypto market did not start the year as investors expected, but instead went up and down. Since December last year, the price trend of the currency has been like a roller coaster, and many market participants, especially altcoin holders, have been exhausted by the slight rise and fall.
Data does not lie. According to Coinglass data, as Bitcoin continues to test lower levels, the current funding rates for mainstream CEX and DEX show that the market is generally bearish. With both market sentiment and coin prices languishing, how do the big players view the subsequent market trends?
Real Vision co-founder: The market is entering the 'banana singularity' zone, and after consolidation, an altcoin season will emerge.
Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated that the cryptocurrency market is entering the 'banana singularity' zone, or a period where 'everything is going up'. ('Banana zone' is a term coined by Raoul Pal to describe a period of significant price increases.)
Raoul Pal stated that the market is still in the banana zone, with the first phase of this bull market being the breakout last November. The next phase will be a consolidation period similar to the 2016/2017 cycle, which will not last long. The next stage of the 'banana zone' is the 'banana singularity,' which is a season of altcoins where 'everything will rise, followed by a larger scope of consolidation.'
CryptoQuant CEO: The altcoin market is in a zero-sum PvP game, and only a few projects can survive.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated on his social platform, 'The altcoin market is currently in a zero-sum PvP (player versus player) game. Although Bitcoin's market cap has doubled, the total market cap of altcoins is still below previous historical highs, only rotating within the market without new capital inflows. Only a few altcoins with strong use cases and narratives can survive.'
Trader Eugene: BTC, ETH, and SOL are facing critical support levels being lost, and the market is beginning to show panic.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media, 'This is the time when most people start to panic, for the following reasons:'
· BTC, ETH, and SOL are retesting the range lows from December 5, and the market is beginning to accept the fact that these support levels may not hold.
· The next support level for BTC is $85,000, which is very far away.
· People's psychological reliance on the 'January bull market' is beginning to weaken, with most realizing that the assets they have not sold have gone through a complete cycle of ups and downs, starting to bear losses, and then finding that they no longer like the coins they hold as much during the market's significant downturn.
Glassnode: If Bitcoin falls below $88,000, it may lead to further declines.
Glassnode stated: 'The short-term holder cost basis ($88,000) remains a key level for assessing Bitcoin price momentum. By using the URPD indicator, it can be found that the trading volume below the short-term holder cost basis is low, suggesting that breaking below this level may lead to further downward trends.'
Trader TraderS: Bitcoin will consolidate in the short term, and the non-farm data this Friday needs to be closely watched.
Twitter KOL trader TraderS tweeted that for the short term, $92,750 might be the short-term low (or second low), and recently Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $92,000 and $102,000. If the upper and lower limits are widened a bit, it would be $88,000 to $108,000. Before Trump's inauguration on January 20, the time cycle and sentiment may still allow for another attempt to reach above $100,000 or even touch previous highs. If there is such an opportunity, it will clear most positions to observe Trump's actual performance after taking office. If there is no opportunity before January 20, we may have to rely on traditional expectations until the small spring in mid-March. The important non-farm payroll data on Friday night may be the most crucial reference data to establish the upper and lower tones, which requires close attention.
Crypto KOL Ansem: The market will enter sideways consolidation, but there are still opportunities on-chain.
Crypto KOL Ansem pointed out that the current fundamental view is that from August to December is altcoin season, with the first round of AI token mini-bubbles occurring from October to December. He expects the market to enter a prolonged sideways consolidation until investors generally believe the bull market is over. During this time, there will be some on-chain projects that perform excellently, while many new projects will be worth participating in.
Trader Kruge: The market is overly pessimistic, the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle has not ended, and we still expect historical new highs.
Renowned trader Kruge expressed his view on the market situation in a lengthy Twitter post, stating: People are too bearish right now. I think this is a matter of time frame. Most crypto natives are exhausted, and many have even been traumatized. Normally, this kind of sentiment could actually form a top. But this time, traditional finance (Tradfi) is buying Bitcoin (not just Saylor acting alone). They are indifferent to the trauma of crypto natives.
So ask yourself: has the stock market reached its peak? That is the key. ETFs should ensure that the correlation remains. To answer this question, you must ask yourself another question: Has the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle ended? I don't think so. We just heard the Federal Reserve announce a temporary pause in interest rate hikes, which the market has basically digested. It is temporary, not permanent. Look at what the Federal Reserve officials are saying; they are still advocating for further rate cuts. The market's expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are priced in for almost just one cut. Three months ago, that number was seven times.
Kruge also stated: The market narrative will soon shift again, no longer focusing on the hawkish Federal Reserve and the sell-off of long-term rates. Trump is also about to make an appearance. Meanwhile, given the pessimistic economic data and chart performance we have just received, I wouldn't be surprised if the BTC price enters the $80,000 range. But to me, this is just temporary noise that requires short-term risk management. I do believe that traders will be more actively selling when the BTC price exceeds $100,000, which will slow down the upward momentum, especially before the price reaches $105,000. I also think macro factors are becoming important again. I don't expect a 'simple pattern' in the future. The days of easy money are over. But I still anticipate Bitcoin will set new highs. We have a long year ahead of us.
