The Cloud Path Leads Far

January 10, 2025
Forecast of US non-farm payrolls in December and its impact on Bitcoin

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Data expectations

• Non-farm payrolls: expected to increase by 160,000, lower than 227,000 in November.

• Unemployment rate: expected to be 4.20%, the same as in November.

Impact analysis

• Slowing employment growth: Job growth slowed in December, mainly due to the return to normal after the one-off shocks in October and November.

• Stable unemployment rate: The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, but higher than the level at the beginning of the year, and may hover around 4.3% in the future.

• Fed policy: Strong non-farm data may cause the Fed to pause interest rate cuts, while weak data may prompt the Fed to further cut interest rates.

• Bitcoin impact: Strong non-farm data may be bearish for Bitcoin, and weak data may be bullish for Bitcoin.

Summary

• Data expectations: Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 160,000 in December, and the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%.

• Market impact: Strong data is bearish for Bitcoin, while weak data is bullish for Bitcoin.

• Suggestion: After the data is released at 21:30 tonight, update your views on Bitcoin based on the specific data performance. #加密市场回调 #美国非农数据即将公布 #市场调整策略 #BTC
$BTC