On January 7, Zhao Changpeng tweeted that "Bitcoin at $100,000 is too boring." If $100,000 is a bit boring, then what about Bitcoin at $91,200? Perhaps all that is left is hesitation and uneasiness. The market once thought that the market would continue to rise, but the result was the exact opposite: Bitcoin has been falling since January 7, and finally fell to around $91,200.
Today, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped to 50, from 69 yesterday (the average last week was 74), and market sentiment plummeted to the level of October last year. The crypto market did not start the year as investors expected, but instead went up and down. Since December last year, the price trend of the currency has been like a roller coaster, and many market participants, especially altcoin holders, have been exhausted by the slight rise and fall.
Data doesn't lie. According to Coinglass data, as Bitcoin continues to decline recently, the current funding rates for mainstream CEX and DEX show that the market is generally bearish. With both market sentiment and coin prices sluggish, how do the big players view the subsequent market trends?
Real Vision co-founder: The market is entering the 'Banana Singularity' zone, and after a consolidation, there will be a season of altcoins.
Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, stated that the cryptocurrency market is entering the 'Banana Singularity' zone, or a period when 'everything is going up.' (The 'Banana Zone' is a term created by Raoul Pal to describe a period of significant price increases.)
Raoul Pal stated that the market is still in the Banana Zone, with the first phase of this bull market being the breakout in November last year. The next phase will be a consolidation period similar to the 2016/2017 cycle, which will not last long. The next stage of the 'Banana Zone' is the 'Banana Singularity,' which is a season of altcoins when 'everything will go up, followed by a broader consolidation.'
CryptoQuant CEO: The altcoin market is in a zero-sum PvP game, with only a few projects able to survive.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated on his social media that 'the altcoin market is currently in a zero-sum PvP (player versus player) game. Although Bitcoin's market capitalization has doubled, the total market capitalization of altcoins is still below previous historical highs, merely rotating within the market without new capital inflows. Only a few altcoins with strong use cases and narratives can survive.'
Trader Eugene: BTC, ETH, and SOL face critical support levels being breached, and the market is beginning to show panic.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media, 'This is when most people start to panic, for the following reasons:'
· BTC, ETH, and SOL are retesting the range low from December 5, and the market is beginning to accept that these support levels may not hold.
· The next support level for BTC is at $85,000, which is very far away.
· The psychological dependence on the 'January bull market' is beginning to weaken, as most people realize that the assets they haven't sold have gone through a complete cycle of ups and downs, and are starting to incur losses, discovering that they no longer like the coins they hold as much during a significant market downturn.
Glassnode: If Bitcoin falls below $88,000, it may lead to further declines.
Glassnode stated, 'The cost basis for short-term holders ($88,000) remains a key level for assessing Bitcoin's price momentum. By using the URPD indicator, it can be found that the trading volume below the short-term holders' cost basis is low, indicating that if this level is breached, it may lead to further downward trends.'
Trader TraderS: Bitcoin will consolidate in the short term, and this Friday's non-farm data needs to be closely watched.
Twitter KOL TraderS tweeted, 'In the short-term market, $92,750 might be the short-term low (or second low). Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $92,000 and $102,000, and if the upper and lower limits are widened a bit, it would be a fluctuation between $88,000 and $108,000. Before Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the timing and sentiment may still allow for a return above $100,000, even touching previous highs. If that happens, it will clear most positions and wait for the actual performance after the inauguration. If there is no opportunity before January 20, we may have to wait for a small spring rebound around the Chinese New Year in mid-March. Meanwhile, the large non-farm data on Friday night may be the most important reference data for establishing the market tone, which needs to be closely monitored.'
Crypto KOL Ansem: The market will enter a phase of sideways consolidation, but there are still opportunities on-chain.
Crypto KOL Ansem pointed out that the current basic view is that the period from August to December is the season for altcoins, with the first round of mini-bubbles for AI tokens occurring from October to December. He expects the market to enter a longer phase of sideways consolidation until investors generally believe the bull market is over. During this period, there will be some on-chain projects performing well, as well as many new projects worth participating in.
Trader Kruge: The market is overly pessimistic; the Fed's rate-cutting cycle has not ended, and new historical highs are still expected.
Well-known trader Kruge wrote a long post on Twitter discussing his views on the market, stating: People are too bearish right now. I think this is a timing issue. Most crypto natives are exhausted, and many have even been traumatized. Under normal circumstances, this sentiment could actually form a top. But this time, traditional finance (TradFi) is buying Bitcoin (not just Saylor acting alone). They are indifferent to the trauma of crypto natives.
So ask yourself: Has the stock market reached its peak? That is the key. ETFs should ensure that the correlation remains. To answer this question, you must also ask yourself another question: Has the Fed's rate-cutting cycle ended? I don’t think it has. We just heard the Fed announce a temporary pause in rate hikes, which has basically been digested by the market. It is temporary, not permanent. Look at what Fed officials are saying; they still advocate for further rate cuts. The market's expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are almost priced in for just one cut. Three months ago, that number was seven cuts.
Kruge also stated: Soon the market narrative will shift again, no longer focusing on the hawkish Fed and the sell-off of long-term rates. Trump is also about to take the stage. Meanwhile, given the pessimistic economic data and chart performance we just received, I wouldn't be surprised if BTC price enters the $80,000 range. But to me, this is just temporary noise that requires short-term risk management. I do think traders will be more aggressive in selling as BTC price exceeds $100,000, thus slowing the rate of increase, especially before the price reaches $105,000. I also think macro factors are becoming important again. I don’t expect there to be a 'simple pattern' in the future. The easy money days are over. But I still expect Bitcoin to set new highs. We have a long year ahead.

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