👉 Nonfarm Employment (Nonfarm) for December: Expected to increase by 164,000 jobs, lower than November (227,000), indicating that the U.S. labor market continues to slow down. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, higher than the beginning of 2024 (3.7%).
Scope of defining Good - Bad news:
- Non-Farm T12: From 140k - 200k jobs.
- Unemployment rate: From 4.1% - 4.3%.
Impact of Non-Farm data on the Investment Market:
👉 U.S. Stocks: little known volatility in recent trading sessions after the Christmas and New Year holidays, currently maintaining a milestone above 42,000 points (Current price 42,635), Non-Farm data tonight will determine the short-term trend for the U.S. Stock Market.
👉 Gold: stable trading after 3 consecutive days of increases, today there may be little volatility in the European session after the Asian session also showed little movement. The upward trend may continue in the U.S. session if the Non-Farm data is weak, but if it exceeds expectations, gold prices may decline.
👉 USD: Continuously increasing in value recently, as all economic data show strength, causing the FED to potentially slow down interest rate cuts. If Non-Farm data is strong, it will support USD to continue rising. If weak (<140k), USD will decline again.
👉 Bitcoin: Showing signs of recovery today, however, price increases may slow down and await Non-Farm data in the U.S. session tonight.
- Summary: 👉 When Non-Farm data is weak (<140) and the unemployment rate rises (>4.3%), the short-term upward trend of Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin will form, conversely for USD.
👉 If Non-Farm data is only within the defined range, the market may experience little volatility, and a sweep of both ends may occur.
👉 If Non-Farm data is strong (>200k), Unemployment Rate (<4.1%): Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks will decrease as the labor market remains strong, the FED may slow down interest rate cuts, while supporting USD to continue rising.
