#美国非农数据即将公布
Heavy Forecast! Non-farm report may bring challenges to the Fed's further rate cuts in 2025
According to Wall Street forecasts and recent data, the US non-farm payrolls report to be released this Friday (January 9) will be key, or it may bring new challenges to the Fed's further rate cuts in 2025.
Analysts generally expect the US economy to add about 164,000 jobs in December, a slowdown from November, but the full-year net increase of about 2.15 million jobs is still very strong. However, wage growth is expected to be moderate as the job market is entering a transitional phase of "no new hires, no layoffs": companies are reluctant to lose existing employees, but lack confidence in the short-term economic outlook, so they are reluctant to pay higher wages to recruit new employees.
Earlier this week, payroll processing giant ADP released its December national employment report, showing that US companies added only 122,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the year-on-year wage increase was the lowest since July 2021.
ADP Chief Economist: Job Market "Slowing"
"In December, the U.S. job market slowed to a more moderate level, with both hiring and wage growth declining." ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said in the report.
The market expects the U.S. Department of Labor to release monthly wage growth of about 0.3%, slightly lower than 0.4% in November. At the same time, economists predict that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%, and the average unemployment rate for the whole year will be about 4.04%.
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas data, companies did not lay off employees at the end of the year. The company's statistics show that the number of layoffs in December was less than 39,000, a month-on-month decrease of 33%. The total number of layoffs in the fourth quarter of 2024 is about 152,000, a year-on-year decrease of 13%.
The momentum of the job market is strong, but short-term uncertainty is increasing
Although the current momentum of the job market remains solid, short-term uncertainty is rising.
