Macroeconomic Data Analysis and Review of Federal Reserve Officials' Speeches

The speeches of Federal Reserve officials early this morning revolved around inflation, economic data, balance sheets, and interest rate cuts. The key points are summarized as follows:

Economic growth is strong, but inflationary risks still constrain the recovery process.

Inflation is still far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and the risk of stagflation remains.

The balance sheet keeps yields low, with limited room for shrinking the balance sheet.

The inclination towards interest rate cuts is gradual and cautious.

Reasons for the macroeconomic environment being unfavorable to the cryptocurrency market:

The improvement in inflation is slow, with the path for interest rate cuts adjusted to 2 times in 2025; expectations for significant cuts in 2024 are no longer realistic.

The issues with U.S. Treasury bonds and balance sheet reduction will compress market liquidity, creating a contradiction between interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction.

Data analysis:

Tonight, non-farm payroll data will be released, and market expectations are poor, with the unemployment rate remaining flat. Combined with the current technical situation and support levels, a short-term resonance rebound may occur.

However, employment data carries uncertainty, and recent price performance has shown bearish declines and weak bullish rebounds, increasing market volatility for non-farm data.

Trading strategy:

Do not chase highs and sell lows; focus on gradually accumulating low-position spot trades. Contract risks are high, and the margin for error is low. When bottom-fishing, it is necessary to choose support levels with a good cost-performance ratio to avoid high-level risks.