Bitcoin continues to find strong support around 92,000. From the overall performance yesterday, it first formed a downward trend, creating a panic atmosphere of a high-level decline. However, two hours after the evening session, a rebound occurred, resulting in a spinning top candlestick pattern, indicating that the subsequent downward space is very limited.
Yesterday there was big news saying that the U.S. government would sell Silk Road's BTC, which immediately caused panic in the market, leading to a surge in short-term panic sentiment. Additionally, the market had previously risen too sharply and is now in a repair phase. Before the king took office, some funds also withdrew to avoid risk.
So what should we do next? Will Bitcoin continue to fall? What to do if you get trapped?
Bitcoin internal adjustments: the black line is the first part of the adjustment, the blue line is the second part of the adjustment, and the red line is the third part of the adjustment; the red line is not a driving wave.
Excluding altcoins and looking at Bitcoin alone, it has actually been undergoing a very strong horizontal adjustment so far, exchanging time for space. In a bull market trend, this head-and-shoulders pattern has a higher probability of being a continuation rather than a peak.
The MACD indicator at the daily level has completed a bottom divergence, and the complete line drawing is as follows:
I believe the upcoming market can expect a rebound; whether it is a rebound or a reversal depends on how the upper resistance level performs.
Small-level resistance levels are 97,000 and 98,500;
Large-level resistance levels are 102,000 and 105,000;
Ethereum is following Bitcoin, and overall it is still oscillating within the upper box. This rebound or rise, as illustrated, cannot break through the upper edge of the box; therefore, I will temporarily abandon it.
Although he might break through and reach for the stars, the cost of time is still a cost, and the cost of mood is also a cost. Holding onto a big pancake makes me feel very good; I won't be looking for my grandma to chat just because I switched to an aunt.
Does everyone still remember the brother who got trapped a while ago?
This week-long ETH short position finally concluded with a profit of 3.651 million USD!
I question the brother, understand the brother, but unfortunately cannot become the brother.
SOL is currently very weak relative to Ethereum, which is something that puzzles me. The ecosystem has first seen a surge in MEME and then AI AGENT, so why is SOL's price so sluggish? This is already the second test of the daily MA120 level.
What I mentioned a few days ago about the support and resistance conversion level of 220 for the short position is surprisingly strong. The strategy is the same as Ethereum; this rebound or reversal, if it cannot outperform Bitcoin, should be decisively cleared to avoid affecting your mood.
The actual effects of Trump's inauguration and his first hundred days of new policies will affect market expectations. We cannot accurately estimate the measures taken after Trump takes office, but we know that Trump has a strong control over the MAGA faction. As long as Trump doesn't mess up himself, we can fully expect to enjoy nearly two years of political stability. Thus, a broad bull market could last for two years.
Next, let's talk about the anticipated altcoin season. The arrival of altcoin season has prerequisites: total buying volume > number of targets * market value.
With the diffusion of technology and the lowering of the threshold for listing coins, the number of targets in the market is approaching infinity. Therefore, only the leading projects in a certain period will attract excessive attention and thus receive excessive capital, leading to a higher multiple increase. Under such many limiting conditions, it will be very difficult to achieve hundreds or thousands of times increases, especially with the expectation of small funds becoming rich in large exchanges becoming increasingly impossible.
The on-chain level 1.5 market seems to have become the only choice for getting rich.
However, the blockchain also has its own disadvantages. The massive rise naturally corresponds to a large number of zero-value coins. From a narrative perspective, a coin can only rise by 1, as after success, there will naturally be great scholars to debate for you, while the strength and purpose of the capital behind it are the zeros following the 1. As for how many zeros there can be, it can only be analyzed gradually through in-depth investment research. This is the only way to increase the winning rate.
