Personal Views on the Altcoin Season

Recently, many people have been confused about whether the altcoin season will be postponed. Here, I would like to share my personal opinions.

First of all, we need to clarify the concept of altcoin season. Generally speaking, altcoin season refers to a period during which a large number of altcoins emerge in the cryptocurrency market, and these coins experience a significant upward price trend, leading to heightened interest and investment enthusiasm from market participants.

Looking back from September 2023 to March 2024, Bitcoin rose from 25,000 to 71,000, nearly tripling in value. During this time, several altcoins such as SEI, TIA, WLD, OM, and the inscription series emerged, with over tenfold increases, primarily featuring new coins and new narratives.

From early August to the end of December, Bitcoin increased from 50,000 to 108,000, doubling in value. Among the altcoins, only SUI, XRP, PUNT, ACT, and some older DeFi projects saw increases of several times.

These two market trends are somewhat different; in the former, altcoins performed much stronger, while in the latter, they were relatively weak.

So, can both of these market trends be considered altcoin seasons?

In my opinion, at a macro level, various funds such as pensions, institutions, ETFs, and national reserves will mostly enter Bitcoin through compliant channels. For secondary altcoins, newly entering institutions typically do not invest in others' projects easily, unless they are involved themselves.

Thus, the funding for the altcoin market mainly comes from retail investors and speculative funds, and the primary market will differentiate the funding in the secondary market.

We can no longer interpret the current and future altcoin market based on the situations of 2017 and 2021. Future altcoin trends will be more phase-based, with no absolute concept of an altcoin season; only differences in the magnitude of phase-based altcoin trends.

When the market is strong, many high-multiplier projects emerge; when the market is weak, fewer projects with lower multipliers appear. The size of the altcoin trend depends on Bitcoin's price increase. If Bitcoin can drop to the 70,000 range and stay there for half a year, then rise to 180,000, altcoins may replicate the market conditions of March 2024, resulting in more emerging projects, making it easier for retail investors to place their bets.

Finally, I want to say that what exactly constitutes an altcoin season is not that important; the key lies in how much profit we can gain from each market wave.

It should be noted that the cryptocurrency market is highly risky and uncertain; investment should be approached with caution.

The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.