Article source: Meta Era
As Donald Trump officially takes office as President of the United States on January 20, 2025, this certain signal indicates a series of reform measures about to be introduced, especially for the emerging cryptocurrency industry. With Bitcoin breaking $100,000 and creating new highs, it seems the crypto industry has fallen into a swamp, with Bitcoin fluctuating around the $100,000 mark, coupled with an upcoming extended vacuum period for crypto news in February, the market requires cautious treatment.
From campaigning to being shot at to being elected: the biggest benefits and expectations have been given in advance!
Looking at the entire process from Trump's campaign to his election, he provided ten new cryptocurrency policies at the 2024 Bitcoin conference, most of which followed the format 'If I am elected, I will XXXX'. Let's review them together:
● Make the United States the global cryptocurrency capital
● Stop suppressing the cryptocurrency industry within one hour of taking office
● Prevent the U.S. government from further developing CBDC
● Establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve
● Dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler
● Prevent the United States from selling its held Bitcoin
● Suggest using cryptocurrency to solve the U.S. debt problem
● Propose comprehensive cryptocurrency policies
● Establish a cryptocurrency advisory committee
● Lessen the prison sentence of 'Silk Road' founder Ross Ulbricht
Among them, "making the United States the global cryptocurrency capital" has dramatically placed the crypto community in the spotlight, allowing more voters involved in cryptocurrency trading to support his presidential campaign. Trump's series of statements have injected optimism into the market, but with the end of the inauguration, there have been no immediate concrete actions to fulfill these promises, leading some investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
But just a couple of days ago, Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, initially promoted as an economic development announcement, revealing plans by Dubai developer Damac Properties to invest $20 billion in the U.S. to build data centers. However, during this press conference, Trump raised four new topics: increasing military spending by NATO member countries, making Canada the 51st state of the U.S., not giving up military occupation of the Panama Canal and Greenland, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to 'America's Gulf.'
The 'territorial expansion desire' implied in the text has suddenly heightened tensions in the international situation, with emotions of confrontation between nations spreading, indirectly causing the cryptocurrency market to 'disturb,' showing a downward trend. According to news from January 7, Coinglass data shows that within 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market faced liquidations totaling $346 million, with long positions liquidating $282 million and short positions liquidating $63.47 million. The total liquidation amount for BTC was $69.59 million and for ETH was $59.68 million.
From the previous campaign period's phrase 'Fight!' after being shot, to positive statements during the Bitcoin conference, to finally being elected president, Trump has brought unprecedented attention to the cryptocurrency industry, which in turn has provided him with more support and funding. However, as he formally takes office on January 20, the cryptocurrency industry is likely to enter a phase where 'real benefits materializing could be bearish.'
February: No wind, no wave, the market is in a sideways trend
Let's take a look at the Federal Reserve's meeting schedule for 2025.
First meeting: January 28-29, 2025, for interest rate decision
Second meeting: March 18-19, 2025, for interest rate decision + economic outlook
StarEx exchange analysts believe that strong data has dampened the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates soon. Previously, the market widely expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2025, but following recent economic data releases, this expectation has been rapidly adjusted. Some analytical institutions even believe that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates at all this year, and if it does, the extent will be very limited. Aditya Bhave, an economist at Bank of America, stated in a report to clients on Wednesday, "More and more signs indicate that inflation is on the rise," considering the timing of the government transition, the Federal Reserve may have completed its last rate cut of this cycle.
In combination, regarding the first Federal Reserve meeting, the recent significant pullback in the U.S. stock market has brought great uncertainty to the market, making it highly likely that this month's interest rate meeting will maintain the current rate without cuts, with no more positive news expected in the short term.
Furthermore, reviewing various Web3 calendars, the cryptocurrency industry in February is as calm as water, with no significant actions taking place, leading into a crypto news vacuum period. The cryptocurrency market in February is likely to exhibit sideways consolidation with low trading volume and reduced volatility. Cryptocurrency prices are fluctuating within a relatively narrow range, without a significant upward or downward trend. Additionally, trading activities have decreased, overall market activity has diminished, and price fluctuations have lessened.
Crypto trendsetter Musk: X will not adopt cryptocurrency for payments in the near future
Recently, Musk mentioned in a live stream on X regarding X Payments that: "There are currently no plans to use cryptocurrency in X Payments; we need a license. We are only focusing on fiat currency and effectively launching X Payments."
This statement does not prove that Musk does not support cryptocurrency; perhaps it is due to compliance considerations for platform payments, where fiat currency payments align more with current development needs and compliance requirements, but it has left many crypto enthusiasts feeling stunned and panicked.
Additionally, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated in his latest blog post that in the first quarter of 2025, the market will focus on whether dollar liquidity can offset the impacts of slow implementation of Trump's policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure will be a safe choice. This also reflects that the market direction in the first quarter is hard to grasp, almost impossible to capture definite benefits, and a cautious wait-and-see approach is not a better choice.
Summary
Although Trump painted a hopeful blueprint for the cryptocurrency industry during his campaign and promised to shape the U.S. into the global cryptocurrency capital, the actual actions after his formal inauguration remain unclear. As the crypto news vacuum period enters in February, market participants need to be wary of potential policy uncertainties and the impact of changes in the international situation on the market. After Trump takes office, whether the ideal cryptocurrency nation he envisions can stir up a new wave in the crypto space, or whether the promised new cryptocurrency policies can be quickly implemented, will be enough to form a new round of benefits, continuing to push Bitcoin towards higher markets.
