As Donald Trump officially took office as President of the United States on January 20, 2025, this definitive signal indicates a series of reform measures that are about to be introduced, especially targeting the emerging cryptocurrency industry. As Bitcoin breaks $100,000 to create a new high, the crypto industry seems to have fallen into a quagmire, with Bitcoin fluctuating around the $100,000 mark. Coupled with the upcoming extended crypto news vacuum in February, future market trends need to be approached with caution.
From the campaign to being shot to being elected: the biggest good news and expectations have been given in advance!
Let’s take a look at the entire process from Trump’s campaign to his election. He gave ten new crypto policies at the 2024 Bitcoin conference, most of which were in the format of 'If I am elected, I will XXXX.' Let's review them together:
● Make the United States the global cryptocurrency capital
● Stop the crackdown on the crypto industry within one hour of taking office
● Prevent the U.S. government from further developing CBDC
● Establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve
● Dismiss SEC Chairman Gary Gensler
● Prevent the United States from selling its held Bitcoin
● Suggest using cryptocurrency to solve the U.S. debt problem
● Propose comprehensive crypto policies
● Establish a cryptocurrency advisory committee
● Reduce the prison sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht
Among them, 'Make the United States the global cryptocurrency capital' has particularly put the crypto community in the spotlight, allowing more voters participating in cryptocurrency trading to support him in his campaign for the U.S. presidency. Trump's series of statements have injected optimism into the market, but with the end of the inauguration ceremony, there have been no immediate specific actions to fulfill these promises, leading some investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
Just two days ago, Trump held a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, initially promoted as an economic development announcement, revealing a plan by Dubai developer Damac Properties to invest $20 billion in the U.S. to build data centers. However, during this press conference, Trump proposed four new topics: increasing military spending by NATO members, making Canada the 51st state of the U.S., not giving up military control of the Panama Canal and Greenland, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to 'American Gulf.'
The implied 'territorial expansion desire' has suddenly heightened tensions in the international situation, with emotions of confrontation spreading between nations, which has indirectly caused the crypto market to 'disturb.' The crypto market is showing a downward trend. According to news from January 7, Coinglass data shows that $346 million in contracts were liquidated across the entire cryptocurrency market in 24 hours, including $282 million in long liquidations and $63.47 million in short liquidations. The total amount liquidated for BTC was $69.5948 million, and for ETH, it was $59.6889 million.
From a 'Fight!' after being shot during the campaign, to positive statements during the Bitcoin conference, to finally being elected president, Trump has brought unprecedented attention to the crypto industry, which has also provided him with more support and funding. By January 20, when he officially takes office, the crypto industry is likely to enter a phase where 'real good news landing becomes bad news.'
February: No wind rises without waves, the market is in a sideways trend
Let's take another look at the Federal Reserve's meeting schedule for 2025.
First time: January 28-29, 2025, interest rate decision
Second time: March 18-19, 2025, interest rate decision + economic outlook
StarEx exchange analysts believe that strong data has dampened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. Previously, the market widely expected the Fed to cut rates twice in 2025, but this expectation was quickly revised downward after recent economic data was released. Some analytical institutions even believe that the Fed may not cut rates at all for the entire year, and if they do, the extent will be very limited. U.S. Bank economist Aditya Bhave stated in a report to clients on Wednesday, 'More and more signs indicate that inflation is on the rise,' suggesting that given the timing of the government transition, the Fed may have already completed its last rate cut in this cycle.
In combination, regarding the first Federal Reserve meeting, the significant pullback of U.S. stocks in recent days has brought considerable uncertainty to the market, and it is highly likely that this month's meeting will maintain the current interest rate without cuts, leaving the market with no more short-term good news.
Moreover, looking at various Web3 calendars, the crypto industry in February is as calm as water, with no major movements occurring, leading into a period of crypto news vacuum. The cryptocurrency market in February is likely to show a trend of sideways consolidation with reduced trading volume and volatility. Prices will fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, with neither a clear upward trend nor a significant downward trend. Additionally, trading activity decreases, overall market activity declines, and price fluctuations become smaller.
Crypto maverick Musk: X will not adopt cryptocurrency for payments in the near future
Musk recently mentioned during an X live stream (Stream) regarding X payments that: "There are currently no plans to use cryptocurrency in X Payments services; we need a license. We are currently focusing on fiat currency and are concentrating on effectively launching X Payments services."
This statement does not prove that Musk does not support cryptocurrency. Perhaps it is due to compliance considerations for platform payments; fiat currency payments are more aligned with current development needs and compliance requirements. However, this has left many crypto enthusiasts feeling as if they were struck on the head, inducing panic.
In addition, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes mentioned in his latest blog post (Sasa) that in the first quarter of 2025, the market will focus on whether the dollar's liquidity can offset the impact of the slow implementation of Trump’s policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure will be a safe choice. This also reflects that the market direction in the first quarter is hard to grasp, and it is almost impossible to capture definite good news; cautious observation is not a better choice.
Summary
Despite Trump painting a hopeful picture for the crypto industry during his campaign and promising to make the U.S. the global cryptocurrency capital, his actual actions after taking office remain unclear. As the crypto news cycle enters a vacuum in February, market participants must be wary of potential policy uncertainties and the impact of changes in international situations on the market. Whether Trump can stir up a new crypto wave with the ideal crypto nation he described after officially taking office, or whether the promised new crypto policies can be implemented quickly, is enough to form a new wave of good news, continuing to push Bitcoin towards higher prices.
