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$BTC

TA (Technical Analysis) at 11:18. Then there is another analysis at 15:00 at the end showing the trend pattern.

The image below is a pattern that analyzes a possible graph for 2025 in which we are currently in the period of 2021 in which it fell 30% then started to rise between January 16th and 20th reaching 65%.

The second image below refers to BTC at 11:18 when BTC was at 92,576.70 and that will be my TA, but do your DYOR.

Overview

On the 3-day time frame, BTC/USDT is showing strong selling pressure, with the current price at 92,576.70 (-2.82%). Indicators suggest a predominant bearish trend, with oversold signals on some time frames, pointing to a possible future recovery. Let’s break down the supports, resistances, and technical indicators for a clear overview.

1. Graphical Analysis

1.1 Trend

  • The price of BTC/USDT was consistently rising but lost momentum, as indicated by the Parabolic SAR (yellow dots above the candles), confirming a downtrend.

  • The moving averages indicate support zones, with EMA(25) at 86,818.43 and EMA(50) at 77,674.21.

  • Higher resistances like 108,353.00 pose challenges for the price in case a recovery attempt occurs.

1.2 Supports and Resistances

1.2.1 Main Supports

  • 97.258,89, 93.069,47, 92.090,13, 91.800,00, 91.624,65, 91.530,45, 90.500,60, 88.722,00, 86.668,21, 85.320,00, 80.216,01.

  • Meaning: These are levels where the price can find buyers and stop the decline.

  • Critical Zone: Between 91,530.45 and 90,500.60, as this is where the indicators point to a possible reaction.

1.2.2 Main Resistances

  • 108.353,00, 107.793,07, 104.088,00, 102.724,38, 102.482,07, 101.339,50, 101.285,09, 100.088,11, 99.588,01, 99.435,22, 98.945,55, 98.292,65, 97.258,89, 94.878,52, 93.905,51, 91.818,09.

  • Meaning: Barriers that the price needs to overcome to confirm a bullish reversal.

  • Important Zone: Closest resistances are between 93,905.51 and 97,258.89, which need to be overcome to attract greater buying interest.

2. Analysis of Indicators

2.1 Graphical Indicators

2.1.1 Volume:

  • Volume is low, indicating less interest at the moment. The drop in volume confirms the weakness of the movement.

  • Volume shows how many people are buying or selling. When volume is high, it means a lot of people are interested.

  • On the chart, the volume is not that high. This means there is not much enthusiasm right now.

2.1.2 Bollinger Bands:

  • The price is approaching the lower border, indicating that it is oversold in the short term.

  • The "bands" (green lines on the chart) show whether the price is high or low.

  • Now the price is close to the lower border, which indicates weakness (fall).

2.1.3 Parabolic SAR:

  • The yellow dots above the candles reinforce the selling pressure.

2.2 Technical Indicators

2.2.1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

  • RSI(25): 56.14 (neutral but moderately supported).

  • RSI(14): 52.51 (neutral, but still above 50, which is positive).

  • RSI(3): 33.00 (indicates short-term weakness and possibility of further declines).

  • Shows whether the price is "expensive" or "cheap".

  • It is currently at 36.67 (below 50) which means the price is weak and could fall further.

2.3 STOCHRSI and MASTOCHRSI

  • STOCHRSI: 9.34 and MASTOCHRSI: 15.95: Both are at oversold levels, which signals that a recovery could happen after the decline stabilizes.

  • These indicators show whether the price is "cheap" or "expensive" relative to the recent movement.

    • STOCHRSI: 9.34 and MASTOCHRSI: 15.95 are very low (close to 0). This means that the price is oversold, i.e. many people sold and it may be "cheap".

    • What does this mean? It could be that the price is close to starting to rise again, but there is no clear signal yet.

2.3 MACD (DIF, DEA and Final Value)

  • DIF: 5,649.01, DEA: 7,049.49, and MACD: -1,400.48: The negative MACD confirms the downtrend. The DIF below the DEA reinforces this weakness (bearish signal).

  • MACD helps you see whether the market is more likely to buy or sell.

  • Orange and blue lines:

    • When the blue line crosses below the orange, it is a bearish signal.

    • Here, the blue line is going down, showing that the price may fall further.

2.4 Wm%R (Williams %R)

  • Wm%R(14): -87.08: Close to -100, indicating strong oversold and potential for recovery soon.

  • This number is very low (close to -100).

    • This confirms that the price is oversold, which could lead to a recovery soon.

2.5 K, D and J indicators

  • K: 32.96, D: 41.45, J: 15.98: All values ​​suggest that the price is in the oversold zone, indicating that the market may seek a reaction.

  • These numbers show the balance between buyers and sellers:

    • K and D are below 50, indicating that the strength of the sellers (decline) is greater.

    • J: 15.98 is very low, which could be a sign of oversold (cheap price).

2.6 OBV (On Balance Volume)

  • OBV: 18,310,977.64: The OBV still shows accumulation, suggesting that interest in BTC is not lost despite the drop in price.

  • This indicator measures the accumulated volume.

    • Since the OBV is high and rising, this means that even with recent declines, there is still a lot of accumulated interest in the asset.

2.7 Accumulation/Distribution

  • This measures whether people are buying (hoarding) or selling (distributing).

  • The line is starting to go down, which indicates that more people are selling.

3. Combined Interpretation

3.1 Current Trend:

  • The trend is clearly bearish in the short term, with indicators such as SAR and MACD reinforcing the selling pressure.

3.2 Possibility of Reaction:

  • Oversold indicators like STOCHRSI, Wm%R and J suggest that after hitting critical supports (oversold). This may signal a positive reaction after the price finds support.

  • However, the MACD and K/D indicate that there is still selling pressure, so the decline could continue before a solid recovery.

3.3 Critical Supports:

Levels like 90,500.60 and 88,722.00 will be crucial to avoid deeper declines.

3.4 Resistances on the Path:

  • To start a recovery, the price needs to overcome nearby resistances like 93,905.51, 97,258.89 and 98,292.65.

4. Operation Strategy

4.1 Downside Scenario (likely short term):

  • The price may continue to decline towards the supports of 91530.45 or 90500.60.

  • What to do? If you are a buyer, wait for the price to stabilize at these supports before entering.

4.2 Recovery Scenario (after finding support):

  • If the price holds the supports, it can look for resistances such as 93,905.51, 94,878.52 and 97,258.89.

  • What to do? For those who want to sell, these resistances are good points to take profits.

5 Conclusion

5.1 The price is falling, but there are oversold signs, indicating that a recovery may occur after reaching supports 93,069.47, 92,090.17, 91,530.45, 90,500.60 and 88,722.00.

5.2 Attention to critical levels:

  • Supports: 91,530.45, 90,500.60, 88,722.00, 86,668.21, 85,320.00 and 80,216.01.

  • Resistances: 93,905.51, 94,878.52, 97,258.89, 98,292.65, 101,285.09 and 102,482.07.

Tip for operations

  • If you want to buy: Wait for the price to drop further and get close to strong support like 90,500.60 or 88,722.00 and/or 90k and 85k.

  • If you want to sell: Wait for the price to rise to strong resistance, such as 93,905.51 or 97,258.89, and evaluate the exit.

  • Remember Do Your Own Research. This is a reminder that you are responsible for your decisions and therefore should conduct your own research before investing.

It took me too long to post, so this is the update on the current trend pattern.

6 Analysis of the Current Situation at 3:00 p.m.

Based on movements up to 3 pm:

6.1 Movement Pattern:

  1. Descending Tops?

    • The recent high at 94,687 is still below stronger resistances (such as 97,258.89) and the previous high at 94,878.52. This continues the formation of descending highs, typical of a downtrend.

  2. Top-Down Funds?

    • The price hit 91,800, retesting the support line. As the support held, there was no significant break yet, but selling pressure persists.

6.2 Volatility and Recoveries:

  • The price is showing upward movements followed by declines, but without any significant upward breakouts. This suggests that the market is oscillating, but still within a descending consolidation structure.

6.3 Volume and Technical Indicators:

  • If the volume on the highs (94,559 and 94,687) was lower than on the lows, this reinforces the weakness of the upward movement and supports the downward continuation.

  • Parabolic SAR, MACD and RSI also indicate prevailing selling pressure.

6.4 The Pattern Still Points to a Bearish Downtrend

  • Why?

    1. The price continues to test supports such as the 91,800 and 92,090.13 levels but fails to sustain rallies above significant resistances.

    2. BTC is still forming descending tops and bottoms on the chart, which is characteristic of a downtrend.

    3. Despite momentary recoveries (such as to 94,559 or 94,687), these moves look more like corrections within a seller-dominated market.

6.5 What to Watch for From Now On?

  • Break of Support at 91.800:

    • If BTC breaks 91,800 on high volume, the downtrend will be confirmed. Next targets are at 90,500.60 and 88,722.00.

  • Resistance Break at 94.687:

    • If price breaks 94.687 and sustains above 94.878.52, we could see a change in the pattern and the start of a stronger reversal or consolidation.

Final Conclusion

  • BTC continues in a bearish downtrend.

  • Moves to 94,559 and 94,687 are momentary and will not invalidate the bearish pattern unless they break strong resistances.

  • The support line in91.800remains crucial. A break below this level will confirm a sharper decline.

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