BTC continues to oscillate. The so-called oscillation market means that there is no trend emotional stimulus, no strong liquidity, and market sentiment drives it a little, oscillating between $92,000 and $98,000. If sentiment is good, it will be pulled above $98,000; if sentiment is poor, it will drop below $98,000, oscillating around $94,000.
Currently, Bitcoin is declining with decreasing trading volume, indicating that the selling pressure at this position has weakened and the decline is losing momentum. In the short term, the downside is limited, and the probability of a rebound is relatively high, although the rebound may not exceed $98,000. After the rebound, it may oscillate at a low level for a while, and there is still a risk of a significant decline in the short term.
Additionally, today there is news that the U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to sell $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin related to the Silk Road case.
Many friends are worried that the nearly 70,000 BTC entering the market will lead to a crash, but in reality, the U.S. Department of Justice has historically sold via OTC. For example, 50,000 BTC obtained from a hacker attack in 2023 was sold in batches OTC, and the 29,000 BTC from the Silk Road was auctioned off as early as 2014. They almost never directly crash the secondary market.
From the currently known U.S. holding data, it does not appear that they have sold out. They may not have even started selling. The Department of Justice has not provided any updates on sales information; if they sold, it would likely be announced, so there’s not much to worry about. Many negative news items tend to emerge when the market declines.
Speaking of altcoins, this round is hellishly difficult. Not to mention short-term situations; even long-term players who have always been the final winners will be at a loss if they haven't chosen the right coins.
Investors who can persist through the current phase undoubtedly possess a will as strong as steel, like the kind that makes a sound when passing through security checks! However, the real climax of this round of altcoin season has yet to arrive; it is expected to undergo at least six months to over a year of tempering before the wild altcoin season can truly begin.
Currently, we are still in the early stages of a rate-cutting cycle, and the transmission of liquidity is not instantaneous; it takes time to permeate gradually. This process can be extremely simplified to: a rate cut in the U.S. leads to an increase in money supply, which in turn triggers a surge in liquidity across capital markets. As funds in hand become ample, expectations for the future economy will gradually improve, leading to more funds flowing into high-risk asset areas, driving their prices up. Ultimately, we will see liquidity gradually spill over from low-risk assets, layer by layer, into high-risk assets.
However, this transmission process takes quarters or even years; it will not be too swift. Therefore, if I were to estimate solely based on intuition, we may need at least another six months to over a year to witness this change.
How should we layout now?
1. Do not touch new coins in secondary altcoins.
You can refer to this standard to match with the blue-chip altcoins that have gone through at least one round of cycles. Don't FOMO; patiently wait for the right buying point, and when you catch it, pull the trigger decisively, then wait for the flowers to bloom.
2. Take a small amount of money to engage in this area of local liquidity that is most abundant for alpha returns.
Both base and sol are good starting points; you must definitely learn them. If you want to play memes, don't jump straight into secondary trading; first, experience the rhythm of memes on-chain. If you haven't played on-chain, jumping into secondary trading will undoubtedly lead to failure. Investing is a game that rewards those who are patient, so be patient, my friend.
