Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: The Federal Reserve's Liquidity Plan Will Be the Focus in 2025
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Current Trend:
Bitcoin has recently experienced significant price fluctuations, quickly falling back to $94,543 after breaking through the $100,000 mark, raising doubts about the expectation of a 'rebound before Trump's inauguration'.
Arthur Hayes Predicts:
BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that the Federal Reserve's plan to inject $612 billion in liquidity could drive Bitcoin up in the first quarter of 2025. He suggests that investors consider selling their positions at the end of the first quarter and wait to make more favorable moves in the third quarter of 2025.
Market Reaction:
Despite the price correction of Bitcoin, there is still institutional interest in the market. The inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached a new high, indicating that traditional financial institutions are increasingly focused on Bitcoin.
Technical Analysis:
Head and Shoulders Pattern Warning: A possible head and shoulders pattern has appeared on the technical chart, indicating that Bitcoin's price may correct to $80,000.
Support Level: The support level for the current price is around $94,500, and if it falls below this, it may decline further.
Monetary Policy and Bitcoin Price Relationship:
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to influence Bitcoin's trend in the coming months. Although regulatory measures from the new government may lag, the Fed's liquidity injection could provide support for Bitcoin's price.
Institutional Investor Participation:
Institutional investors' interest in Bitcoin continues to grow. Despite overall market volatility, the CEO of MARA Bitcoin mining company has expressed a 'long-term hold' view, believing that Bitcoin may continue to appreciate over the long term.
Conclusion:
Although Bitcoin faces uncertainty in the short term, especially regarding potential regulatory challenges after Trump's inauguration, the Federal Reserve's liquidity plan and ongoing involvement from institutional investors provide support for Bitcoin. Further changes in technical aspects and market trends will determine Bitcoin's next direction.
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