From campaigning to being shot to being elected: the biggest benefits and expectations have all been given in advance!
Article author: 0x9999in1, MetaEra
With Donald Trump officially taking office as President of the United States on January 20, 2025, this certain signal indicates a series of upcoming reform measures, especially for the emerging cryptocurrency industry. After Bitcoin broke through $100,000 to create a new high, it seems the cryptocurrency industry has fallen into a swamp, with Bitcoin oscillating around the $100,000 mark, and facing an extended vacuum period for cryptocurrency news in February, caution is needed in future market trends.
From campaigning to being shot to being elected: the biggest benefits and expectations have all been given in advance!
Looking back at the entire process from Trump's campaign to his election, he provided ten new cryptocurrency policies at the 2024 Bitcoin conference, most of which were framed as 'If I am elected, I will XXXX'. Let's review them together:
● Make the U.S. the global cryptocurrency capital
● Stop the suppression of the cryptocurrency industry within one hour of taking office
● Prevent the U.S. government from further developing CBDC
● Establish strategic Bitcoin reserves
● Dismiss SEC Chairman Gary Gensler
● Prevent the U.S. from selling its Bitcoin holdings
● Suggest using cryptocurrency to solve the U.S. debt problem
● Propose a comprehensive cryptocurrency policy
● Establish a cryptocurrency advisory committee
● Lessen the sentence of 'Silk Road' founder Ross Ulbricht
Among them, 'making the U.S. the global cryptocurrency capital' has placed the cryptocurrency community in the spotlight, allowing more voters participating in cryptocurrency trading to support his presidential campaign. Trump's series of remarks have injected optimism into the market, but with the end of the inauguration ceremony, there have not been immediate concrete actions to fulfill these promises, leading some investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
However, just a couple of days ago, Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. This press conference was initially promoted as an economic development announcement, revealing the plan of Dubai developer Damac Properties to invest $20 billion in the U.S. to build data centers. However, during this press conference, Trump introduced four new topics: increasing military spending ratios for NATO member countries, making Canada the 51st state of the U.S., not giving up military occupation of the Panama Canal and Greenland, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to 'American Gulf'.
The 'territorial expansion desire' hinted at in the text has suddenly made the international situation tense, and emotions of confrontation between countries are spreading, which has indirectly caused the cryptocurrency market to 'disturb', showing a downward trend. According to news on January 7, Coinglass data shows that $346 million in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, including $282 million in long positions and $63.47 million in short positions. The total liquidation amount for BTC was $69.5948 million, and for ETH, it was $59.6889 million.
From the phrase 'Fight!' after being shot during the campaign, to positive statements about cryptocurrency during the Bitcoin conference, and finally to being elected president, Trump has brought unprecedented attention to the cryptocurrency industry, which has also provided him with more support and funding. As of January 20, when he officially takes office, the cryptocurrency industry is very likely to enter a 'real positive landing equates to negative' phase.
February: No wind does not rise, the market is sideways
Let's take a look at the Federal Reserve's meeting schedule for 2025.
First time: January 28-29, 2025, to hold interest rate decision
Second time: March 18-19, 2025, to hold interest rate decision + economic outlook
StarEx exchange analysts believe that strong data has dampened the market's expectations for the Fed to lower interest rates soon. Previously, the market widely expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, but this expectation was rapidly adjusted after recent economic data was released. Some analysis agencies even believe that the Fed may not lower interest rates at all this year, and even if it does, the extent will be very limited. U.S. Bank economist Aditya Bhave stated in a report to clients on Wednesday, 'Increasingly, signs indicate that inflation is on the rise.' Considering the timing of the government transition, the Fed may have completed its last interest rate cut of this cycle.
In combination, regarding the 1st Federal Reserve meeting, the significant pullback of U.S. stocks in recent days has also brought considerable uncertainty to the market. It is highly likely that this month's interest rate meeting will maintain the current interest rate without cuts, and there are no more short-term positive factors for the market.
Additionally, looking through major Web3 calendars, the cryptocurrency industry in February is calm as water, with no major actions happening, indicating an entry into a vacuum period for cryptocurrency news. The cryptocurrency market in February is likely to show sideways consolidation with low trading volume and reduced volatility. Cryptocurrency prices fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, with no significant upward or downward trends. Moreover, trading activities decrease, resulting in lower overall market activity and reduced price fluctuation.
Cryptocurrency trailblazer Musk: X will not adopt cryptocurrency for payments in the near future
Recently, Musk discussed topics related to X payments during an X live stream test, stating: 'There are currently no plans to use cryptocurrency in X Payments services; we need a license. We are currently focusing on fiat currency and aiming to effectively launch X Payments services.'
This statement does not prove that Musk does not support cryptocurrency. Perhaps it is due to compliance considerations for platform payments, as payments in fiat currency are more in line with current development needs and compliance requirements. However, this has also left many cryptocurrency enthusiasts feeling as if they have been hit over the head, generating panic.
In addition, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in a recent blog post that in the first quarter of 2025, the market is focused on whether the dollar's liquidity can offset the slow implementation of Trump's policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure will be a safe choice. This also reflects that the market direction in the first quarter is not easy to grasp, and it is almost impossible to capture clear positive factors; a cautious wait-and-see is not a better choice.
Summary
Although Trump painted a hopeful blueprint for the cryptocurrency industry during his campaign and promised to make the U.S. the global cryptocurrency capital, his actual actions after officially taking office remain unclear. As the cryptocurrency news enters a vacuum period in February, market participants need to be alert to potential policy uncertainties and the impact of international situation changes on the market. After Trump's inauguration, whether the ideal cryptocurrency nation he depicted can create a new wave in the cryptocurrency space or whether the promised new cryptocurrency policies can be quickly implemented are enough to form a new round of positive factors, continuing to push Bitcoin towards higher prices.
