1. Introduction
At the beginning of 2025, the price of Bitcoin once again broke through the $100,000 mark. This milestone breakthrough marks that the crypto market has entered a new stage. It is not only a reflection of technological and financial innovation, but also reflects the profound changes in the global economic environment. At the same time, the United States is about to usher in Trump's third presidential term. This political change will have a profound impact on the global market and geopolitical landscape. Against this background, the status of crypto assets as a safe haven tool has become increasingly prominent. The entry of institutional investors, the reform of accounting rules, and the rise of Web3 and DAO are all reshaping the future of the financial market. This report will comprehensively look forward to the development direction of the crypto market in 2025 from the perspectives of the macroeconomic environment, the driving force behind Bitcoin's breakthrough, the far-reaching impact of accounting rule reform, on-chain data analysis, Meme market evolution, regulatory dynamics, Web3 and DAO trends, and analyze future opportunities and risks.
2. Changes in the macroeconomic environment: The impact of Trump’s inauguration on the global economy and the crypto market
Trump's successful presidential campaign in 2025 has brought new uncertainties to the global economy and markets. His economic policies will continue his past "America First" advocacy, focusing on lowering taxes, promoting the return of manufacturing, and strengthening competition with China. This policy orientation will have a significant impact on both traditional financial markets and crypto markets.
2.1 Economic Policy Outlook for the US Election
Trump's inauguration is expected to bring more relaxed fiscal policies and conservative monetary policies. His campaign promises include further cuts in corporate tax rates, increased investment in infrastructure construction, and boosting economic growth in areas such as energy and manufacturing. These policies may bring short-term economic prosperity, but they may also exacerbate fiscal deficits and long-term inflation risks. The Trump administration may also reassess the US monetary policy stance and further pressure the Federal Reserve to promote faster interest rate cuts and looser monetary policies. This series of policy changes may drive more funds to safe-haven assets, especially non-sovereign assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
2.2 Continuation of the US dollar interest rate cut cycle
In 2024, the Federal Reserve has started a new round of interest rate cuts to cope with the slowdown in US economic growth and the potential risk of recession. Under pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve may continue to adopt a more aggressive interest rate cut strategy, which will directly promote the increase of US dollar liquidity. As real interest rates fall, investors will seek new asset classes to preserve and increase value. In this environment, the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets (such as gold) and new safe-haven assets (such as Bitcoin) will increase significantly. The continuation of the interest rate cut cycle will prompt more funds to flow from the bond market and the stock market into the crypto market. This trend is similar to the crypto bull market triggered by the Fed's massive easing policy after the epidemic in 2020, except that this time the driving force is stronger because the market is more concerned about the depreciation of fiat currency and inflation.
2.3 Global inflation trends and reconfiguration of safe-haven assets
Inflation will continue to plague the global economy in the coming years. Although central banks have taken various measures to try to control inflation, structural inflation caused by geopolitical conflicts, energy crises and supply chain disruptions is unlikely to be fundamentally resolved in the short term. Global investors will continue to seek tools to hedge against inflation. Although traditional safe-haven tools (such as gold) are still popular, crypto assets such as Bitcoin offer better liquidity and growth potential. Especially for the younger generation of investors and technology companies, Bitcoin will be more attractive.
3. Analysis of the driving force behind Bitcoin’s breakthrough of $100,000
Bitcoin’s re-examination of the $100,000 mark in 2025 is the result of increased global investor confidence and changes in the macroeconomic environment. Here are a few key factors driving this breakthrough:
3.1 The Relationship between Federal Reserve Policy and Crypto Assets
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has always been one of the important driving factors of the crypto market. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has injected a large amount of liquidity into the market through quantitative easing (QE) and low interest rate policies. These policies have not only pushed up the prices of traditional financial assets, but also provided an important growth soil for crypto assets such as Bitcoin. The interest rate cut cycle and liquidity release that began in 202 further promoted the growth of investors' demand for Bitcoin. This trend accelerated in 2025 and became one of the important driving forces for Bitcoin to break through $100,000.
3.2 Trend of Enterprises Using Bitcoin as Reserve Assets
Since MicroStrategy took the lead in using Bitcoin as a corporate reserve asset in 2020, more and more companies have begun to follow suit. In 202, this trend will enter a full-blown outbreak period.
The main reasons for the corporate cryptocurrency purchases include: hedging the risk of fiat currency depreciation, increasing the diversity of asset allocation, and meeting investors’ demand for digital assets.
In addition to MicroStrategy, many technology companies, financial institutions and even traditional enterprises have begun to view Bitcoin as a store of value and an important component of their balance sheets.
3.3 The role of companies such as MicroStrategy in driving capital inflows
MicroStrategy's continuous coin purchase strategy provides strong support for the Bitcoin market. As of the beginning of 2025, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have exceeded 440,000, and its coin purchase strategy has become a market trend.
Other listed companies, such as Tesla and Square, are also increasing their Bitcoin holdings. This continued inflow of corporate buying will provide long-term support for the Bitcoin market in the next few years, while attracting more institutional investors.
3.4 Resonance effect between retail investors and institutions
In 2025, the Bitcoin market ushered in a resonance effect between retail investors and institutional investors.
Retail investors: Driven by rising prices and market sentiment, retail investors are once again entering the market in large numbers.
Institutional investors: With the legalization of Bitcoin and the reform of accounting rules, more institutional funds such as hedge funds and pension funds are also pouring into the market.
This dual driving force has greatly increased the liquidity of the Bitcoin market, and after the price broke through the psychological barrier of $100,000, it further attracted the spread of FOMO sentiment.
IV. Market data analysis: On-chain data changes after BTC broke through $100,000
The price of Bitcoin has exceeded $100,000, which is inevitably accompanied by changes in on-chain data within the market. By analyzing on-chain data, we can have a deeper understanding of changes in market structure, changes in investor behavior, and potential trends in the future market.
4.1 Distribution of Coin Holding Addresses
As the price of Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, on-chain data shows that there have been some obvious changes in the distribution of addresses holding coins:
Increase in whale addresses: After the price exceeded $100,000, the number of whale addresses on the chain increased significantly. This shows that institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals are accelerating their entry into the market, driving prices up further.
More long-term holders: The number of long-term holding addresses (HODL addresses) is also rising, indicating that more investors are choosing to hold Bitcoin for the long term rather than short-term trading.
Increase in small addresses: At the same time, on-chain data shows that small Bitcoin addresses (holding less than 0.1 BTC) are also growing rapidly. This indicates that retail investors are returning to the market and promoting the diversification of the market.
4.2 On-chain transaction volume and liquidity analysis
On-chain transaction volume is a key indicator of market activity and liquidity. The following is the trend of on-chain transaction volume after Bitcoin broke through $100,000:
Volume surge: After the price broke through $100,000, there was a short-term surge in on-chain transaction volume. This was mainly due to high market sentiment and the entry of retail investors.
Enhanced liquidity: On-chain data shows that the liquidity of the market has increased significantly after breaking through the key psychological barrier. This has a positive effect on the price discovery mechanism and market stability.
4.3 Bitcoin Miners’ Profit Changes and Supply Pressure
Miners play an important role in the Bitcoin network. Their behavior directly affects market supply and price fluctuations. After Bitcoin broke through $100,000, miners' profit situation and behavior patterns also changed:
Miners’ profits have increased significantly: After the price broke through $100,000, miners’ profit margins have reached a record high. This will drive more miners to join the Bitcoin network and improve the network’s computing power security.
Supply pressure weakens: As miners' profits increase, miners' selling pressure weakens, and the supply pressure in the market also eases. This provides support for Bitcoin prices and drives prices up further.
5. Regulatory dynamics and future trends in the crypto market
As the market value and influence of the crypto market continue to expand, regulators in various countries have begun to pay more attention to the legalization and compliance of crypto assets. In particular, changes in regulatory policies in the US, European and Asian markets will have a profound impact on the future market landscape.
Future regulatory dynamics will not only involve compliance requirements such as anti-money laundering (AML) and combating the financing of terrorism (CFT), but also regulatory frameworks for emerging areas such as decentralized finance (DeFi), stablecoins, and DAO governance. This trend will bring new challenges and opportunities to exchanges, project owners, and investors.
5.1 Policy shift of the US SEC
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been taking a tough stance on the crypto market over the past few years. Especially in lawsuits against large exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance, the SEC has shown a strict crackdown on unregistered securities.
However, with the 2024 presidential election behind us, regulatory attitudes could shift significantly:
Trump administration's pro-business policies
After Trump takes office, he may promote more relaxed financial policies and relax restrictions on innovative financial products. This will help the legalization and compliance process of the crypto market.
Implementation of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan
It is generally believed in the industry that the implementation of the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan is expected in 2025. This will provide a legal entry channel for national funds, further driving up the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Clarification of the regulatory framework for stablecoins
The regulation of stablecoins has always been a focus of the SEC and the U.S. Treasury Department. In the future, a stablecoin regulatory framework may be introduced to make stablecoins a legal payment tool, thereby promoting innovation in the payment field.
5.2 New Trends in Crypto Regulation in European and Asian Markets
The European and Asian markets are more open to the regulation of crypto assets, but there are differences in the details.
MiCA framework for the European market
The European Parliament adopted the (Regulatory Framework for Markets in Crypto-Assets) (MiCA) in 2024, the first comprehensive crypto-asset regulatory framework worldwide.
MiCA requires all Crypto-Asset Service Providers (CASPs) to be registered and compliant within the EU;
The issuance and circulation of stablecoins are strictly regulated, and the adequacy and transparency of reserves must be ensured;
Regulatory rules for NFTs and DeFi are still under discussion, but may include broader compliance requirements in the future.
Regulatory developments in Asian markets
The Asian market has always been an important development area for the crypto industry, especially financial centers such as Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan.
Hong Kong has become a crypto-friendly policy testbed and opened legal channels for retail investors to trade crypto assets in July 2024;
Singapore has always emphasized the balance between compliance and financial innovation, becoming the preferred landing place for DeFi and DAO projects;
Japan regards crypto assets as a legal payment method and has higher security requirements for crypto exchanges.
5.3 Compliance development path in 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, the global crypto market will usher in a more mature regulatory framework and compliance development path:
Exchanges’ compliance transformation
Large exchanges such as HTX, Binance and Coinbase will accelerate their compliance transformation and conduct business globally through licensed operations, anti-money laundering measures and increased transparency.
Legal recognition of DAOs and DeFi
The legal status of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and decentralized finance (DeFi) will gradually become clear. Some countries may recognize the legal status of DAOs, which will provide a legal basis for the popularization of the DAO governance model.
Legalization of global stablecoins
Stablecoins will become an important cornerstone of the future crypto market, promoting the development of global cross-border payments and financial inclusion.
VI. Outlook 2025 — Opportunities and risks in the crypto market
With changes in the global macroeconomic environment and the continuous development of the crypto asset market, 2025 is expected to become an important turning point in the crypto market. In this year, the popularity of crypto assets will reach a new level, the participation of traditional financial institutions and enterprises will significantly increase, and at the same time, the increasing improvement of the regulatory framework will also promote the market to mature. However, opportunities and risks coexist, and investors need to fully understand future opportunities and challenges when facing a new round of market conditions.
6.1 Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Predictions
As the leading assets in the crypto market, the price trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum are a bellwether for the entire industry. Looking ahead to 2025, the price performance of these two assets will be driven by multiple factors:
The impact of the macroeconomic environment, the inflow of institutional funds, the promotion of technological upgrades, and changes in market sentiment
We will make price predictions for Bitcoin and Ethereum under different scenarios, including neutral and optimistic scenarios.
6.1.1 Bitcoin Price Prediction
1. Neutral scenario: $120,000-150,000
In a neutral scenario, Bitcoin’s price will be driven by several factors:
Implementation of FASB accounting rules: As new accounting rules allow companies to measure Bitcoin at fair value, more companies are expected to include Bitcoin in their balance sheets in 2025, thereby driving growth in market demand.
The emergence of the Bitcoin halving effect: The Bitcoin halving in 2024 will have a significant impact in 2025. Historical data shows that after each halving, the price of Bitcoin usually rises sharply within 6-18 months.
Improvement of the regulatory environment: Trump’s coming to power will promote pro-crypto regulatory policies, and the improvement of the regulatory environment will help the growth of the crypto market value.
2. Optimistic scenario: $180,000-200,000
In an optimistic scenario, the price of Bitcoin could reach $180,000-200,000, or even higher. This prediction is based on the following factors:
Global economic uncertainty: If the global economy sees a new round of recession or geopolitical conflicts, the demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset will further increase.
Massive corporate adoption of Bitcoin: If more Fortune 500 companies follow MicroStrategy’s lead and use Bitcoin as a reserve asset, market demand will grow exponentially.
6.1.2 Ethereum Price Prediction
1. Neutral scenario: $7,000-9,000
Ethereum’s price performance in 2025 will be primarily influenced by the following factors:
Ethereum continues to upgrade: Ethereum's technology upgrade and expansion plan will greatly improve the scalability and security of the network, attracting more decentralized applications (dApps) and DeFi protocols.
Increase in institutional investment: As Ethereum is seen as a key component of Web3 infrastructure, participation from institutional investors is expected to increase significantly.
2. Optimistic scenario: $10,000-12,000
In the optimistic scenario, the price of Ethereum could reach $10,000-12,000, driven by the following drivers:
Maturity of Layer 2 solutions: The popularity of Rollup technology and other Layer 2 solutions will make the Ethereum network more efficient and low-cost, thereby driving the influx of more users and projects.
Continued growth of NFTs and DeFi: Innovations in the NFT market and DeFi protocols will continue to drive the expansion of Ethereum’s use cases, increasing on-chain activity and transaction demand.
6.2 New opportunities in the Meme coin track
Meme coins, as a unique phenomenon in the crypto market, have created wealth myths many times since Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. In 2025, the Meme coin track is expected to usher in the second wave, but unlike the first wave, this time the Meme coin project will pay more attention to practicality and sustainability, such as memes in the field of AI Agent.
6.2.1 Driving Factors of the Second Wave of Memes
Elon Musk’s continuing influence
Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, is still the core promoter of the Meme coin track. His every speech and action will cause drastic fluctuations in the market.
Enhanced community consensus: The community consensus and cultural communication of the Meme Coin project will become an important source of value. Future Meme Coin projects will pay more attention to the influence of social media and user interaction.
Innovative financial tools: The development of decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT markets will provide more financial tools for the Meme coin track, such as staking, lending, governance, etc., to enhance the practicality and user stickiness of the project.
6.3 Potential risks facing the crypto market
Despite the positive outlook, the crypto market still faces a number of risks, including:
Macroeconomic uncertainty: Uncertainty in the global economic environment, such as rising inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index, could have a negative impact on the crypto market.
Technical risks: The crypto asset market is subject to the risk of technical loopholes and hacker attacks. In particular, the security issues of DeFi protocols and smart contracts remain a hidden danger in the market.
Regulatory risk: If major economies implement stricter regulations, such as tax policies and exchange restrictions, this could have a dampening effect on the market.
VII. Conclusion - The beginning of a new era in the crypto market
2025 will be a historic turning point for the crypto market, marking the gradual blurring of the boundary between traditional finance and digital assets. Against the backdrop of changes in the global macro environment, clearer regulatory policies, and continuous advancement of technological innovation, the crypto market is entering a new era of greater maturity and diversity. Bitcoin’s breakthrough of $100,000 is not only a price milestone, but also a symbol of the further consolidation of digital assets as a global store of value. In this market full of opportunities and challenges, companies, institutions, and individual investors will have more opportunities to create wealth. However, future market competition will rely more on innovation and compliance. Only those participants who can quickly adapt to changes and deeply understand technology and policy trends can be invincible in the new era. The future crypto market will not only be a financial market, but also a profound change in the global economic system, promoting decentralized finance to become mainstream and realizing the full awakening of financial inclusion and autonomy.
