Bitcoin Market Analysis: Short-term Rebound, Long-term Decline, Target of 80000 Closer

1. Market Outlook

The current trend of Bitcoin can be described as a 'garbage market', with continuous declines and no significant rebound, and it is expected to eventually drop to 80000. However, before that, it may first reach 86500. The process is: first drop to 90500, then retrace to 86500, and finally 80000. The probability of filling the 80000 gap on CME futures has reached 70%.

2. Short-term Rebound

The current rebound is meant for further decline, with the initial target at 95500. Once broken, the next target is 97100. If the rebound is weak, the price may retrace again to 92600. A strong rebound above 98700 could potentially change the current bearish trend, but the likelihood is low.

3. Possibility of Rise

Although there is almost no hope for a rebound in the short term, if positive news appears, especially changes in policies from the United States, it could bring about a wave of rebound. In particular, if Trump changes his policy on Bitcoin after taking office, it could indirectly boost the market. However, the current market expectations for such news are relatively low.