Author: Revc
The AI Agent track has recently attracted a large number of investors due to extreme volatility, and its high return potential creates a unique trading experience. MEME trading stimulates 'rollercoaster-like jumps' in balances, with the instant release of dopamine making people excited yet addicted, putting investors to the test psychologically and emotionally.
For investors, while enjoying the profits brought by market fluctuations, it is essential to be wary of the erosion of addictive psychology and avoid falling into emotional trading. Meanwhile, by deeply researching the long-term value and technical potential of projects, investors can find more stable investment directions amid volatility. The market needs to balance rationality and passion, rather than being dominated by singular stimuli.
Currently, the selection of MEME projects follows two lines: 'speculation' and value discovery. This article analyzes high-frequency 'speculative' operational methods, revealing how professional MEME creators consume investors' energy and principal.
Case of 15x in 1 hour
Taking the MEME token Agora as an example, after investors initially judged the project to have upward potential, they engaged in scalping trading for arbitrage, with multiple scalping trades rapidly doubling their principal. However, this was just the beginning; after the second-to-last purchase, Agora quickly surged to a 15x increase within 30 minutes. Due to the lack of stop-loss and take-profit features on the web trading interface, the actual profit was far from 15x, but stimulated by the 15x increase, investors fell into a cycle of continued speculation, ultimately losing everything amid the volatility.
PS: Scalping is a high-frequency trading strategy where traders capture short-term price fluctuations in stocks, futures, or other financial instruments to profit. The core concept of scalping is to quickly enter and exit trades using the market's short-term fluctuations, gaining small profits from each trade but accumulating returns through multiple trades.
A 'strategy' for analyzing from 30 seconds to 10 minutes with principal going to zero
MEME trading is a high-intensity game of information capture and rapid execution, while PVP trading has evolved a framework-based indicator system for project screening. In this model, the analysis and execution phases are extremely compressed, usually completed in just a few minutes, especially when a project's market capitalization has just reached N times the domestic market capitalization (approximately $68,000). At this stage, N is typically less than 10, meaning the market capitalization is below $600,000, and market competition is exceptionally fierce. However, once a project peaks and falls back, such new projects are often quickly abandoned by investors, leading to a sharp decrease in hype.
1. Project Judgment and Screening: On the new project page, sort by launch time; at this point, projects typically exhibit trading volumes 3-5 times their market capitalization, with blue-chip indices in the 0-1.2% range. During quick screening on the primary page, focus on the following indicators: rapid growth in address numbers, low market capitalization (avoid projects with market caps reaching tens of millions of dollars), and projects that have not shown severe pullbacks and continue to reach new highs within 1-5 minutes.
2. Release Time: 30 minutes is generally a critical dividing line; most projects will begin to show signs of dumping and netting around 30 minutes after release (data collected around 6 PM Beijing time).
3. Market Capitalization Size: Projects with a market capitalization of around $300,000 are generally more reasonable, while projects reaching tens of millions of dollars may carry a higher risk of running away.
4. Running Risk: The GMGN platform marks the developer's operational records in historical projects, such as withdrawing liquidity, dumping, or developers running away; these markers are important indicators for assessing project stability.
5. Blue-chip Index: As a growth indicator, the blue-chip index reflects investors' purchasing power and community consensus by analyzing the situation of blue-chip tokens held by investors, providing a side basis for judging project health.
6. Order Book Health Indicator (X=Trading Volume/Market Capitalization): Typically, in the early stages of a project, the X value approaches 2, and then presents a downward-opening parabolic change trend. When the parabola peaks, trading volume hits a new high, and market capitalization approaches a cycle high point, this usually indicates that PVP trading activity has reached its climax. Afterward, trading volume decreases, market capitalization declines, and 'smart money' begins to withdraw.
In addition, trading volume can provide a preliminary judgment on tokens. For instance, a single transaction reaching a new high may indicate the entry of large funds, which is positive for market sentiment. However, currently, many trading platforms have not yet provided statistics on the trend changes or trading frequency of single transaction amounts, so relying solely on trading volume data may be insufficient for a comprehensive analysis of market trends.
7. Marked Traders: Typically, these are leading MEME communities and DEX platforms that indicate whether publicity has covered mainstream communities, but such addresses usually withdraw liquidity quickly.
8. TOP10 Address Indicator: This indicator is used to analyze the address holding the top ten token quantities and the proportion of their holdings to the total supply. Generally, a holding ratio of less than 20% for the top ten addresses is considered healthy, indicating a more dispersed token distribution, strong community consensus, and relatively low selling risk.
9. Profit Expectation Formula: As the market capitalization of tokens grows from $300,000 to $3 million, the success rate is often very low. Investors typically invest between 1-10 SOL in a single project, but excessive liquidity addition may lead to skyrocketing prices, triggering the greed of holders and rapid profit-taking. For example, if the success rate of projects selected by investors is P=10%, and funding goes to zero after failure, then according to 1/P=10, a single project needs to achieve a return of 1000% to break even. In this case, projects with a market capitalization of hundreds of thousands of dollars resemble a probability game.
10. New Coin Priority Strategy: As the framework for filtering and analyzing MEME tokens matures, creators often prefer to issue new tokens to more easily manipulate related indicators. This new coin issuance model not only caters to the market's preference for 'innovation' but also increases the likelihood of attracting funds in the short term.
11. Same Concept, Prioritize Base: Taking the recent Percy concept promoted by Musk as an example, the performance of the Base network significantly outperforms Solana. This is because users of the Base network are mostly seasoned DeFi users, whose purchasing power is usually 3-4 times that of Solana users. Additionally, trading on Base frequently sees whales entering, further enhancing its market performance and liquidity.
12. Doubling Out Strategy: Since PVP is a high-frequency and high-risk trading model, users are easily influenced by emotional fluctuations during the process. The 'doubling out' strategy is a relatively scientific and psychologically lighter method. By reclaiming the initial investment after doubling the returns, investors can more easily hold the remaining portion of their assets long-term, thus freeing themselves from the pressure and troubles caused by short-term emotional fluctuations.
13. Motivation Analysis for Pool Adjustments: In medium to large projects, investors typically pair tokens with SOL in trading pairs and invest in Raydium liquidity pools to achieve up to 999.99% 24-hour APR. The core essence of DeFi is shorting volatility, and when paired assets experience unidirectional trends, liquidity providers may face impermanent loss. When investors increase liquidity pool assets, it usually means they are optimistic about the corresponding asset's short-term rise, but the extent may be limited, reflecting signals of short-term consolidation. Conversely, when investors reduce pool assets, it often indicates a bearish attitude towards a particular asset, possibly accompanied by selling or readjusting the asset's exchange ratio.
14. New Address Action Observation: Regular market-making is considered a dangerous signal, such as large amounts of money being bought and sold against each other; the trading habits of developer addresses can also be studied.
By understanding the above methods and having a preliminary analysis of domestic projects, congratulations, you are about to fall into the trap of professional MEME operators, who will create a perfect MEME based on indicators that fit your project analysis framework, then create a narrative with AI + founder interaction + hackathons, coupled with the emotional ups and downs brought about by high-frequency trading, leading to a rapid loss of judgment about the project and breaking the discipline of trading, resulting in losses. Therefore, this article is a 'MEME addiction recovery article.' No matter where investors learn about the 'wealth secret,' information asymmetry still exists because PVP must have someone to take over, so new users in Web3 should avoid getting addicted to the MEME track and gradually cultivate their ability to discover value.
For framework-based AI Agent projects, attention can be paid to the Forks page in the GitHub repository to see which projects reference Eliza's code. However, even then, it is necessary to cautiously evaluate the project's development progress and actual potential to avoid blindly following investment trends.
The last MEME impact suggestion—manage your time wisely and take breaks!!
Summary
MEME trading is not only a test of innovation and risk tolerance but also fully showcases the potential of cutting-edge concepts like AI Agents in technological breakthroughs and decentralized narratives. Such high-volatility markets provide sharp investors with opportunities for quick profits while also promoting the exploration and development of blockchain technology, token economic models, and AI application scenarios. In this environment, investors need to continuously optimize their instant decision-making abilities and market adaptability to find advantageous strategies and apply them in a high-risk market.
However, the high-frequency volatility of the MEME market also carries significant risks. Intense price fluctuations can easily trigger emotional trading, leading investors into a cycle of 'blind speculation.' The dopamine rush from short-term gains may cause one to overlook the logic of long-term value investing, while over-reliance on short-term trading often results in substantial losses of principal. Particularly for projects lacking solid technical support or real application scenarios, they can easily become mere speculative tools once the hype fades, resulting in significant losses for investors. Such losses not only undermine personal investment confidence but may also negatively impact the healthy development of the entire cryptocurrency industry, further exacerbating market instability.
For investors, rationality and a long-term perspective are especially important. When participating in MEME trading, one should combine technical analysis and project value discovery, avoiding being swept away by short-term fluctuations. Only by finding a balance between risk and reward can one achieve true sustainable profits in this high-volatility market.
