The bad news has finally come out, the $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized from Silk Road can now be sold in the market. After the negative news lands, Bitcoin enters an oversold state (oversold doesn’t mean it won’t drop, it means it can bounce back quickly). Today, pay attention to the opportunity to buy during dips. Yesterday, during the major drop, BlackRock bought in large quantities, they have mastered the strategy of buying low and selling high.
From the 4-hour level perspective:
Bitcoin is currently in the third phase of the overall adjustment, having made a small degree of impulsive waves down since 102724, and it found support at the second support level provided yesterday.
From the 3-day level perspective:
The MA30 moving average is currently at 87987 and will continue to rise over time. This aligns with the triangle trend strategy (FOMO at the front of the triangle, low selling pressure, continuously pushing higher; high selling pressure at the back of the triangle, starting to pull back), and the indicators at this level have not yet fully recovered. If the K-line does not break below the 3-day MA30 level, the maximum adjustment period for this round is at the end of January or the beginning of February.
Today is a day of mourning in the United States, the U.S. stock market is closed in the evening, and liquidity will be very low throughout the day. Next, focus on Friday (when the U.S. stock market opens and significant macro data is released), with the rebound observation point around 96300 (support and resistance conversion), which is the first support mentioned yesterday. Observe the strength at this position; if it is relatively strong, we can look forward to the next movements, needing a higher high to confirm.
The characteristic of this bull market is that it is quite difficult to navigate, with sharp rises and falls interspersed with slow rises and sharp falls, making it hard to grasp the rhythm. We need to respond with strategies: don’t panic-sell during downturns, and don’t be greedy during rebounds.
1. Focus on hot tracks
The main characteristic of this round of the bull market is rapid rotation, we identify hot tracks (if all else fails, then BES). Altcoins are divided into three tiers:
The first tier consists of hot coins, with several times the low points;
The second tier belongs to the majority, where their space is only in the extremely oversold rebounds that occur when they can't fall any further (a rebound of around double from the lowest point is quite normal);
The third tier is a zero-sum coin, which has fallen to the point where it can't fall any further, and a rebound has not even doubled; such coins can be abandoned.
2. On-chain bull market is greater than secondary bull market
Whenever the secondary market is in despair, the on-chain has actually gone through one round of bull markets after another, from MEME to AI AGENT, continuously new things are emerging. Most of this round's action is happening on-chain, while the secondary market has been feeding us junk, don’t consume it; this can be judged from the large exchanges, visibly all the power points in this round are on DEX, this is the trend; and why some places in the secondary market keep feeding junk might be due to accumulating before a breakout, but I lean more towards the fact that they really lack funds.
3. Not learning will definitely lead to elimination.
In such a rapidly changing market of cryptocurrencies, I believe that the future volatility of Bitcoin may decrease, to the point where trading Bitcoin might require using high leverage similar to forex. Currently, in the secondary altcoin market, I really don’t see anything that can break through within the crypto circle.
Many people say that there is no altcoin season anymore, but I believe there is still an altcoin season. However, I won't foolishly wait for the altcoin season while burying my head in the sand, I will take the time to learn and consolidate. If a new trend emerges, I will actively embrace it and seize the opportunity to make money. So, let's go ALL IN on AI, ALL IN on blockchain (it's not about putting all your money in, but investing all your energy). The wilderness era of AI is beginning, and this is where real wealth creation occurs. Recently, I have earned several years' worth of salary in the AI AGENT track, and there are more opportunities ahead. Let's work hard together for a prosperous year.
