The non-farm payroll data came in 140,000 lower than expected, with a published value of only 122,000. It really seems that when we don’t want bad data, bad data comes. Although the non-farm payroll has low weight, it still raised market concerns about the employment market.
After the data update, the pre-market gains in US stocks basically turned into declines. Among the seven tech giants, NVIDIA once again led the rise, with Amazon and Soft's META following closely. I wonder if NVIDIA can still lead the tech stocks to stabilize the US stock market tonight.
Tonight, we need to focus on whether the second half of the US stock market can reverse the downward trend. If BTC does not receive a boost from the US stock market in the early hours, it is very likely to continue to retreat and test the bottom support in the 92,000 range, which is not too optimistic.
Many students are asking if this drop in Bitcoin officially starts the down C wave?
At present, the rise on Monday and the decline yesterday seem to be heading towards a down C wave trend.
The first wave corresponds to the previous high of 108,353, indicating an initial decline, guiding the market to become bearish.
The second wave rebounds but lacks the strength to break through the previous high.
The third wave experiences a significant short-term decline, causing panic and concentrated selling pressure in the market.
The fourth wave experiences a slight rebound, correcting after a significant short-term decline.
The last drop of the fifth wave completes the C wave trend, then stabilizes and accumulates for a while to start a new main rising wave.
My view is to first assume that it is gradually being disproven. If the down C wave really begins, it means that we are currently in the second wave stage—rebounding upwards but not breaking the previous high.
However, this trend is currently just a guess and should not be taken as a major bearish argument. Although the short-term price has broken below the daily mid-track, we still need to see if there will be a rebound to re-establish at the daily upper track. It does resemble a down C wave, but I really hope it doesn't start now. I'm still looking forward to the market during the Chinese New Year.
This wave of Bitcoin pullback is quite miserable for altcoins. The top 300 altcoins basically did not rise. They are all stablecoins above, which means altcoins have entered a state of general decline, especially the older altcoins in the secondary market, which are the worst. They weren't there when the market was rising, but they fell even more when it dropped, unlike the AI agents projects.
Although Binance listed contracts for swarms, cookie, and alch last night, causing the entire AI agents sector to collapse, it should be noted that these AI agents projects have multiplied many times recently. This pullback is really just a little sprinkle.
Even though the entire track was in a pullback last night, the two golden dogs, catg and cnjr, still brought chain users dozens of times returns. There are also newcomers like max and buzz that burst into the discussion of 100 million blue-chip projects. In short, the profit effect across the network is now focused here.
AI agents are definitely the main narrative force in this round and even in the future rounds of the market. Even the infrastructure and applications of crypto over the past decade will be reshaped in the AI world. The current so-called framework can be seen as the infrastructure of public chains.
In the future, all ecosystems will gradually become AI-driven, and the participation model for retail investors will gradually be tiered. The pump in the internal market can be seen as the original IDO. The end of the internal market is equivalent to entering the secondary market, with small funds looking for opportunities in tier one, and large funds seeking certainty in tier two. Of course, after making money, one must still return to the principle of Bitcoin being the ultimate investment strategy; converting to Bitcoin is the eternal correct investment tactic.
