Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is BTC About to Bounce Back Significantly?

Click on the name live, join the live room to chat

Recently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $95,000, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market in the short term. Since mid-November, the bullish momentum of Bitcoin has significantly weakened, mainly due to market uncertainty about future trends and the weak performance of the futures market. In particular, the open interest (OI) of Bitcoin futures has not significantly increased in the past two months, reflecting investors' lack of confidence in the short-term market.

Short-term Bearish Sentiment and the Futures Market

The market performance of Bitcoin futures suggests that, in the context of Trump’s upcoming second inauguration, the market may experience a sell-off event. The stagnation of open interest in the futures market indicates that the market's expectations for Bitcoin's future trends are becoming conservative. As speculation continues to heat up, especially in light of changes in the U.S. political environment, the price of Bitcoin may further be affected by market sentiment fluctuations, increasing the likelihood of falling below $90,000 in the short term.

MVRV Pricing Range and Mid-term Expectations

Although prices may continue to decline in the short term, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio offers some hope. Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio is 2.18, significantly higher than the 1-year moving average (MA). This indicates that Bitcoin's market value is relatively high at present; historically, when the MVRV ratio exceeds 3.2, the market typically enters an extreme euphoria zone, which usually drives prices up.

If Bitcoin's price reaches an MVRV ratio of 3.2, the market may experience a relatively strong rebound, with prices potentially reaching $132,000. This suggests that, in the medium term, Bitcoin still has significant upward potential, especially after a shift in investor sentiment.

Long-term Outlook and Institutional Investor Participation

Although the current price surge of Bitcoin is being suppressed, participation from institutional investors is steadily increasing, providing support for Bitcoin’s long-term growth. As Bitcoin attracts more capital inflows in the gold market and traditional finance (TradFi), we may see more institutional participation in the coming years. This trend indicates that Bitcoin is gradually transforming from a risky asset to a more mainstream store of value.

Click on the name live, join the live room to chat