When Bitcoin's price drops below $100,000, the familiar refrain of 'buy the dip' echoes across social media and the investment community. While this enthusiasm is understandable given Bitcoin's potential, I would like to offer a contrarian viewpoint: now may not be the best time to invest in Bitcoin.

Before going deeper, I want to emphasize that this is not investment advice, but rather an exploration of reasoning and my perspective.

1. Avoid becoming exit liquidity

One important reason I caution against buying at this time is to protect retail investors from becoming 'exit liquidity' for larger players. Simply put, when large investors decide to sell, they rely on an influx of buyers to keep prices stable or rising. Retail investors, drawn in by fear of missing out (FOMO), often end up buying near market tops, only to see prices drop immediately afterward.

A strategy and patience are needed to avoid this trap.

2. A price drop doesn't always mean a sale

While Bitcoin's current price may seem to have dropped, it is essential to assess its historical context. A 13% decline from the all-time high may seem significant in traditional finance, but in the notoriously volatile Bitcoin market, this drop is hardly noteworthy. In fact, Bitcoin often experiences daily price swings of this magnitude.

Understanding Bitcoin's four-year cycle is crucial. Historically, Bitcoin prices peak around the time of the halving event and then drop significantly the following year. These declines often bring prices down to levels similar to the previous cycle's highs.

Taking the 2022 cycle as an example:

  • Previous peak: $20,000 (2017 cycle).

  • 2022 low: $15,500, down about 23% from the previous peak.

If this pattern repeats in 2026, we could see Bitcoin drop to around $53,000—much lower than its current level. For those seeking true value, such a scenario represents a much better buying opportunity.

3. Timing matters, even for long-term investors

While the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy—regularly buying Bitcoin regardless of price—is a proven strategy, new investors often ask whether this is a good time to buy. My answer would be: 'not really.' Timing purchases to align with Bitcoin's historical lows can significantly amplify long-term returns.

While I support holding Bitcoin as a long-term asset, you should also pause to consider whether this is the right time to maximize your investment.

4. Broader market momentum

Yes, there are exciting developments, such as companies adding Bitcoin to their treasuries and discussions surrounding national Bitcoin reserves. But there are also large-scale sell-offs by nations and corporations. For example:

  • Bhutan recently sold its Bitcoin holdings.

  • Tesla and Germany have also liquidated part of their Bitcoin reserves.

Such events highlight the unpredictable volatility of the market, even as institutional adoption continues to rise.

What does the future hold?

Bitcoin continuously follows a cycle pattern, and there is little reason to believe this will change in the near future. If history is any guide, the current upward momentum may give way to a significant downturn in the coming years. When that happens, Bitcoin will present a real buying opportunity.

Final thoughts

This perspective is not intended to discourage responsible investing, especially for those using DCA strategies. Instead, it is a call for patience and caution. If a loved one asks me whether now is the time to buy Bitcoin, I would say, 'Wait for a better opportunity.'

While Bitcoin's long-term outlook remains promising, having a strategy for timing purchases can make a significant difference in your financial returns. So, while the market may seem attractive right now, the best opportunities often arise when others are panic-selling—not when the frenzy reaches its peak.