Bitcoin experts are abuzz as President-elect Donald Trump criticizes the current policy of the Federal Reserve, calling interest rates 'too high' despite persistent inflationary pressures. 'We are inheriting a tough situation from the outgoing administration,' Trump stated at his Mar-a-Lago club, adding that officials seem to be 'doing everything possible to make it harder' for his new team.
These candid remarks, made less than two weeks before Trump's inauguration, raised predictions about a potential shift in US monetary policy—and sparked speculation about a push for Bitcoin and other risk assets in the new year.
Trump's strategy in 2017: The dollar 'too strong', Bitcoin rising?
Although the economic and geopolitical context has changed since Trump's first term, some market observers see parallels with his 2017 speech. At that time, he criticized the US dollar, which he deemed 'too strong', a stance that preceded a significant drop in the currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY) peaked near 104 in early January 2017 but began a downward trend that lasted until early 2018, bottoming out around 98.
This volatility of the dollar coincides with a broader risk environment, fueling the rise of stocks as well as the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), made a direct comparison on X.
“The last time Trump said something was 'too high', it was the dollar - in January 2017, just days before his inauguration,” Bittel stated, recounting: “Here’s what he said: 'Our companies can’t compete with them right now because our currency is too strong. And that’s killing us.'
Notably, last year, Trump also referred to the recent strength as 'a tremendous burden on American businesses.' Bittel further argued: 'Trump understands the impact of a strong dollar – and the same logic applies to high interest rates. They stifle exports, hurt corporate earnings, and slow economic growth.'
Speaking about the impact on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general, Bittel concluded: “What happened next? Well, the dollar began to decline significantly, setting the stage for one of the most important macro moves we’ve seen in years – triggering a surge in risk assets. Déjà vu? I think so. Let’s see how it plays out.”
Bittel is not the only expert speculating that DXY may have peaked, reflecting its 2017 peak pattern. Steve Donzé, Deputy Chief Information Officer of Multi Asset at Pictet Asset Management Japan, shared a widely discussed chart on X, commenting 'Right on time. Ready for resistance', while overlaying recent DXY fluctuations with the trajectory of the currency in early 2017. The chart suggests a similar pattern could foreshadow renewed dollar weakness in the coming weeks.
In a separate post, financial analyst Silver Surfer (@SilverSurfer_23) pointed out a strange time overlap: 'DXY peaked on January 3, 2017—18 days before Trump's inauguration. DXY seems to have peaked on January 2, 2025—19 days before Trump's inauguration.' He described this parallel as 'the crazy repetition of history', explaining that he sees a correlation between the trajectory of DXY before both inaugurations.
Such analogies are fueling speculation that a repeated decline of the dollar could create a favorable environment for risk assets. If the dollar indeed enters a new downtrend—similar to 2017–2018—Bitcoin could ride a new wave of liquidity and speculative demand.
At the time of the press release, BTC was trading at $94,950.
