The highly anticipated December ADP private sector employment data has been released, known as the "Little Nonfarm" data, and the results are disappointing, with only 122,000 new jobs added. This not only falls short of the 146,000 in November but is also far below economists' prior expectations of 136,000, resulting in a difference of about 140,000 from expectations. This undoubtedly brought an unexpected shock to the market. Although the weight of the Little Nonfarm data is relatively limited, it still triggered deep concerns in the market about the state of the job market.
Meanwhile, affected by factors such as tariffs and inflation, the global bond market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with bond prices plummeting and yields soaring. Among them, the UK 10-year Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since 2008, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has also sharply increased to 4.71%. The drop in bond prices has led to a significant increase in yields, severely suppressing the entire risk asset market. Of course, some investors hold the view that if the surge in bond yields is primarily driven by strong economic growth rather than purely by inflation factors, the market is expected to quickly absorb the pressure brought by the surge in yields. However, at present, due to the issue of Trump's tariff policy, future inflation expectations are bound to continue rising. This factor, intertwined with others, constitutes the complex reasons for the current decline in bond prices.
After the data update, the pre-market situation for US stocks took a sharp turn, with the originally positive gains almost entirely turning into losses. Among the seven tech giants, Nvidia once again demonstrated a leading trend, and Amazon and Meta also saw slight increases. However, the uncertainty in the market remains significant. Whether Nvidia can continue to lead tech stocks and stabilize the overall US stock market tonight is still an unknown, and the entire market is watching closely, particularly focusing on whether the second half of the US stock market can reverse its downward trend. Additionally, for Bitcoin, if it cannot gain strong support from the US stock market's rise in the early morning, it is likely to continue to decline, testing the bottom support level in the 92,000 range. The overall situation is not optimistic, and the specific support and resistance levels can be referenced in the previous market analysis. Currently, market participants can only wait and observe changes in market data later for clearer market signals.